Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
000
FXUS64 KSHV 131149
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
649 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Mostly cloudy this morning and little more homogeneous with
widespread low to mid 60s. Winds are mixing the air this morning
from the south at 5 to 15 mph and radar is showing little
sprinkles and a few rain drops mixed in for possibly a trace
amount. Water vapor shows a short wave right over E TX and moving
ENE. We are thinking this will dampen out with the onset of
heating a little late for this go around. This same general
forcing axis could touch off a shower or isolated thunderstorm
this mid afternoon over SW AR or a couple of cenLA Parishes.
The HRRR is speckled with a some light QPF until about lunch
time. Otherwise, the low clouds will be tough for a while, but the
afternoon should mix in some sun beams with highs near to around
80 degrees. The winds overnight will stir the air even moreso with
mid to upper 60s common place this time tomorrow. Some of those
late day showers in our I-30 corridor will remain a favored locale
for more overnight with a chance for thunderstorms as well. The
HRRR shows a few daybreak showers near Lufkin on Thursday. High
will remain mild and well above average as the southerly winds
remain in place. All the models show initial focus over E TX and
SE OK into AR for Thursday and spreading southward late.
/24/
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
The SW flow rain machine will be sharing southward over time. The
WPC days 2,3 and 4 EROs all highlight a Slight Risk somewhere in
our Four-State area. We are in a general thunderstorm risk for
this next day. However, the SPC day two outlook has been upgraded
for hail with an Enhanced Risk area from SE OK into SW/W/NW AR
with the Slight Risk area still running from Nacogdoches to Minden
and ElDorado. Accordingly, the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will be on the increase for Thursday and especially
the evening and overnight. The Southerly winds will keep rather
breezy overnight with more low to mid 60s for lows.
The SPC keeps a Marginal Risk for day 4 along the frontal
boundary and the cold front will begin to shift winds to N/NE
early on Friday as the QPF makes a move south into the heart of
our area. Rainfall totals are still impressive, but in slightly
different areas. Now the event total is still a good 1 to 2
inches with higher amounts over 3 inches bulls eyeing our I-20
corridor give or take in TX and LA. Again a lot of this activity
will be set up to train, which could lead to heavy bouts for some
ahead of the front.
Temperatures will begin to trend down during Friday and into
Saturday as the northerly winds continue into the area. The rainy
weather will continue to shift the heavy elements down into the
I-10 corridor by late Saturday and through Sunday, keeping
lighter amount still up along I-20. Then, the big surface air
mass will nose down late in the weekend and end up with a 1031mb
core over NB/KN by daybreak on Monday. This cool and dry air mass
will put an end to the rain for a few days as we wrap up the
Winter season chilly and dry on Tuesday evening at 10:06 pm CDT.
That remnant parent upper low from the SW U.S. finally is allowed
eastward for us late late in this period with another wet end to
next work week looming.
/24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
The SW flow rain machine will be sharing southward over time. The
WPC days 2,3 and 4 EROs all highlight a Slight Risk somewhere in
our Four-State area. We are in a general thunderstorm risk for
this next day. However, the SPC day two outlook has been upgraded
for hail with an Enhanced Risk area from SE OK into SW/W/NW AR
with the Slight Risk area still running from Nacogdoches to Minden
and ElDorado. Accordingly, the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will be on the increase for Thursday and especially
the evening and overnight. The Southerly winds will keep rather
breezy overnight with more low to mid 60s for lows.
The SPC keeps a Marginal Risk for day 4 along the frontal
boundary and the cold front will begin to shift winds to N/NE
early on Friday as the QPF makes a move south into the heart of
our area. Rainfall totals are still impressive, but in slightly
different areas. Now the event total is still a good 1 to 2
inches with higher amounts over 3 inches bulls eyeing our I-20
corridor give or take in TX and LA. Again a lot of this activity
will be set up to train, which could lead to heavy bouts for some
ahead of the front.
Temperatures will begin to trend down during Friday and into
Saturday as the northerly winds continue into the area. The rainy
weather will continue to shift the heavy elements down into the
I-10 corridor by late Saturday and through Sunday, keeping
lighter amount still up along I-20. Then, the big surface air
mass will nose down late in the weekend and end up with a 1031mb
core over NB/KN by daybreak on Monday. This cool and dry air mass
will put an end to the rain for a few days as we wrap up the
Winter season chilly and dry on Tuesday evening at 10:06 pm CDT.
That remnant parent upper low from the SW U.S. finally is allowed
eastward for us late late in this period with another wet end to
next work week looming. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
For the 13/12Z TAF period, MVFR conditions are generally noted at
most terminals with expanding stratus/stratocu cigs. Expect more
deterioration with occasional IFR cigs through mid to late morning
as southerly flow continues to provide good moisture advection from
the Gulf. These cigs will slowly improve by early to mid afternoon
with strong BL heating/mixing, likely returning to low VFR at all
sites. Although less likely, cannot completely rule out some patchy
fog at LFK around daybreak along with a few pockets of light rain
along an advancing shortwave trough through the first half of the
period. Otherwise, look for southerly winds to prevail between
5-15 kts on average with some higher gusts this afternoon. Lower
cigs will return after 14/03Z through the evening/overnight as
convection begins to encroach on our NW airspace invof TXK ahead
of a cold front shifting SE into the Southern Plains.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 80 68 84 67 / 10 10 40 90
MLU 78 65 82 66 / 10 10 60 70
DEQ 77 61 79 59 / 10 40 80 90
TXK 78 66 81 63 / 10 30 70 90
ELD 77 63 79 62 / 10 20 60 90
TYR 80 68 82 65 / 10 10 50 80
GGG 80 67 84 65 / 10 20 50 90
LFK 81 68 86 67 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19