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000
FXUS64 KSHV 150709
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
209 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

An increased pressure gradient due to a surface high across the
Southeast and a low across the Great Plains will maintain
southerly winds around 10 to 15 mph across much of the region
today. Under mostly cloudy skies areawide, high temperatures are
forecast to climb in the lower 80s.

Persistent low-level southerly flow to continue to advect gulf
moisture across the region from tonight through Tuesday. The
surface low across the Plains will deepen and evolve into a mid-
latitude cyclone with a trailing frontal boundary extending south
into Texas. The frontal boundary will eventually stall across the
ArkLaTex by Wednesday.

Steepening lapse rates combined with a strong mid-level jet and a
moist boundary layer ahead of the front on Tuesday will aid in
destabilizing the environment. Convection is forecast to form
along the frontal boundary as it moves southeast into the
ArkLaTex. Strongest convection, capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will likely occur during
the time of afternoon peak heating across portions of southeast
Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas with convection of reduced
intensity expected southward along the front into northeast Texas
and northwest Louisiana. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Convection to gradually weaken and shift east on Tuesday night
with the frontal boundary lingering across the region. Upper-level
flow throughout the remainder of the work-week to remain nearly
zonal, allowing for a marginally unstable environment areawide.
The combination of weak instability and the surface boundary will
allow for decent chances of diurnally driven convection each
afternoon from Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures to
gradually cool each day as surface high pressure drives the
frontal boundary southward. By Sunday most of the region will be
under the influence of the surface high with temperatures ranging
from highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

For the 15/06Z TAF update, MVFR cigs will mostly predominate again
across most terminals especially at the beginning and end of the
period. Southerly surface winds will gain speed through the
daytime hours before gradually slackening by the end of the
period. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  66  83  69 /   0  10  30  20
MLU  83  67  85  70 /   0  10  10  20
DEQ  78  63  78  66 /  30  40  70  20
TXK  82  66  79  70 /  10  20  60  20
ELD  82  64  81  68 /  10  10  40  30
TYR  82  67  82  71 /   0  30  40   0
GGG  83  66  81  70 /   0  20  50  10
LFK  85  67  84  71 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16