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000
FXUS64 KSJT 131850
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
150 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue across West Central
Texas through the next 24 hours. Gusty south winds of 15 to 25 mph
will to 5 to 15 mph this evening. A low level jet of 30 to 40 knots
is forecast to develop late this evening, which may result in an
increase in winds to 15 to 20 mph, especially in the higher
elevations across the forecast area. Expect overnight lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Stratus is forecast to overspread the
southern half of the area toward daybreak, with skies quickly
clearing by late morning or early afternoon. On Sunday, winds will
be quite a bit lighter than what we`ve experienced the last couple
of days, with south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph, with higher
gusts. NBM winds looked a bit too light, so I did bump them up
slightly. Highs on Sunday will be hot, with most locations topping
out in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Expect very warm and dry weather this weekend due to low level
southwest flow and warming 850 MB temperatures. Highs will be in
the in the upper 80s to near 95 on Sunday. The weather gets more
active early next week with severe weather possible late Monday
afternoon and night. A strong upper level disturbance, with a
negative tilt/strong mid level jet streak, will rotate out to the
northeast across the Southern and Central Plains Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. At the surface, will see a spring like pattern
across the Southern Plains 12Z Monday with southerly flow(wind
gusts 35 to 40 mph Monday evening) across our area to the east of
a dryline over west Texas. The combination of moderate
instability, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s and dryline
moving east will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing during the late afternoon and evening, as a Pacific
cold front overtakes dryline and upper level dynamics increase. A
few storms may be severe with strong vertical wind shear in the
area. The SPC Day 3 outlook for Monday has a slight risk for much
of west central Texas and an enhanced risk over the northern 1/3
of the Big Country with a few supercells possible during initial
development and then convection developing into a line of storms
during Monday evening and overnight. The main hazards will be very
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Going with a
low to medium chance of rain.

For Tuesday, the storm system exits the area with breezy conditions
and highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Looks like very warm days
Wednesday and Thursday as 850 MB thermal ridge will be over our
area. Highs will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s. The weather is
more unsettled by Thursday and Friday as cold front moves south
Thursday night with a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms
Thursday night and Friday. Also, cooler temperatures Friday with
highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

South winds of 15 to 20 knots, with higher gusts, will continue
through the afternoon hours, then decrease to 12 knots or less
this evening. The one exception will be KABI where winds overnight
will remain between 12 and 15 knots. Stratus is forecast to into
the southern 3 sites between 10Z and 12Z Sunday, resulting in
MVFR to IFR ceilings. KSJT will be on the edge of the stratus, so
have continued VFR conditions for now. A return to VFR conditions
is expected by late morning Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  92  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  60  94  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    62  93  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   59  88  63  85 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  62  93  65  89 /   0   0   0  20
Ozona       59  90  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       62  90  65  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...Daniels