757
FXUS01 KWBC 052027
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun May 05 2024

Valid 00Z Mon May 06 2024 - 00Z Wed May 08 2024

...A deep upper low will bring windy and much colder weather
across a large portion of the western U.S. as well as heavy
mountain snow through the next couple of days...

...Heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms over southern
Texas and Mid-Mississippi Valley this evening will taper off as a
higher threat of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms quickly
emerges over the north-central Plains later on Monday...

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain threats will shift east
into the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes on Tuesday...

...A rapidly intensifying cyclone will bring wind-swept rain
across the northern High Plains Monday into Tuesday with
high-elevation wet snow across the high-elevations of the northern
Rockies...

...Critical fire danger is forecast for the southern Rockies...

A rather vigorous and deep upper-level low continues to push
farther into the western U.S. bringing windy and much colder
weather across a large portion of the region.  Heavy wet snow
across the higher elevations of the Great Basin and a good portion
of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies will expand
eastward into the central Rockies by tonight.  This system will
also bring quite a bit of wind, especially as a potent cold front
passes through the Four Corners region to Wyoming this evening,
before spreading into the Rockies and much of the High Plains on
Monday as a cyclone is forecast to intensify rapidly over the
northern High Plains.  An additional foot or more of heavy wet
snow is expected to accumulate along the Cascades in Oregon, as
well as much of the northern and central Rockies through Tuesday.
In addition, severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
central Plains later on Monday ahead of a potent cold front.
These thunderstorms will tend to intensify and track toward the
north-northeast into the northern Plains and the upper Midwest
Monday night where the potent cold front and a warm front collide.
 Meanwhile, the center of the deep cyclone will then track across
the northern Plains with wind-swept rain impacting the northern
High Plains on Monday.  The cyclone center is forecast to meander
over the northern Plains on Tuesday with the threat of heavy rain
and high winds continuing across northern/eastern Montana while
cold air wrapping around the deep cyclone will support heavy wet
snow over the northern Rockies.

Meanwhile across the eastern two-thirds of the country, the strong
to severe thunderstorms found over southern Texas into the
mid-Mississippi Valley are expected to gradually taper off into
scattered showers and thunderstorms later tonight as the
associated upper-level disturbance weakens.  Farther east along
the East Coast, some showers and embedded thunderstorms over the
Mid-Atlantic as well as a large swath of moderate rainfall over
New England are expected to slide off the coast by Monday morning.
 Meanwhile, the scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms
associated with the weakened upper-level disturbance will slide
eastward and bring unsettled weather across the Tennessee Valley
into the Southeast and up into the Mid-Atlantic states through
Tuesday.  Also on Tuesday, the Ohio Valley, Midwest, into the
Great Lakes will see more widespread showers and possibly severe
thunderstorms moving in as the lead frontal systems from the
northern Plains cyclone quickly arrive.

The cool and dreary weather from the Mid-Atlantic to New England
will gradually give way to warmer temperatures.  In contrast, much
cooler weather will continue to penetrate the western U.S. with the
passage of the deep and vigorous upper trough/low along with windy
and inclement weather closer to the elongated cyclone.  Finally,
windy and dry conditions are forecast to raise the danger of wild
fires across the southern Rockies through the next few days.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$