Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
684 FXUS66 KSTO 081014 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 314 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty north to east winds through Thursday. Widespread valley highs in the 90s by late week into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Troughing will remain over the Great Basin Region trough Friday, as high pressure tries to build eastward over California from the Pacific. Main ridging with this high pressure system will spread north of California over the Pacific Northwest. This will create a strong pressure gradient over Northern California through the rest of the week. The orientation of the gradient will bring northerly winds down the Sacramento Valley strongest over the western Sacramento through Thursday. Downslope east to northeast winds will also occur over the Sierra in this pattern with the northeast orientation to the gradient. Ensembles indicate gusts of 35-45 mph will be likely across much of the western Sacramento Valley and gusts to 45-55 mph across the Sierra and portions of the foothills where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Gradient begins to weaken by Thursday afternoon with the winds diminishing. A gradual warming trend will occur through the week into the weekend with temperatures reaching well above normal levels from 10 to 15 degrees Friday into the weekend, as Valley highs climb into the low 90`s. This will represent and huge change from the previous few weeks where temperatures have been mainly in the 60`s and 70`s and will bring brief periods of moderate heat risk during the afternoon hours. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)... Cluster analysis continues to show ridging as the dominant forecast feature, continuing our stretch of above normal temperatures and dry weather. Clusters show some uncertainty regarding the amplitude (strength) of the ridge in the Pacific creating a larger range of possibilities for afternoon temperatures late this weekend and early next week. Nonetheless, Saturday into early next week will see afternoon high in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the Valley with mainly 70s and 80s for the mountains and foothills. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. In Central Vly, widespread Nly sfc wind 15-25 kts with lcl gusts to 35 kts. In foothills/mtns areas N-E sfc wind gusts 30-45 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley- West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. && $$