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000
FXUS62 KTAE 141029
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
629 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure remains over the area today with sunny skies and
warming temperatures expected. High temperatures are forecast to
warm into the low to mid 80s across the area this afternoon, with
lows falling into the low to mid 50s tonight. With fairly calm winds
expected overnight, some spots of patchy fog will be possible
particularly across the FL Panhandle and into portions of SE
Alabama.|

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Onshore flow around the high in the western Atlantic will lead to
warming temperatures and increasing moisture levels to start the
week. Highs are forecast to climb into the middle 80s across much of
the area except the immediate coast where they`ll be closer to 80. A
sea breeze is expected to push inland both afternoons. However,
drier air aloft will keep rain chances out of the forecast.

A bit of fog is possible Tuesday night across the region as low-
level moisture values continue to increase and skies remain
relatively clear. Temperatures Monday night are forecast to
generally be in the middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Warmer than normal weather continues through the rest of the week. A
cold front is forecast to move into the Southeast Friday and mosey
on through sometime Friday or Saturday.

The H5 ridge axis will be over the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday, but will be flattened out by an H5 low racing through the
Great Lakes. This will lead to nearly zonal flow over the region
Wednesday and Thursday. A shortwave embedded within the mean flow
may bring a shower or two to the region Thursday afternoon. However,
confidence wasn`t high enough to go higher than a 10% chance for
rain at this point. At the surface, high pressure in the western
Atlantic will continue to provide a southeasterly breeze as
temperatures remain in the middle to upper 80s. There remains a
chance, about 30% now, of a few spots reaching 90 degrees for the
first time this year Thursday and/or Friday. A cold front is
forecast to move into the Southeast sometime Friday and near the
region Saturday. There is the chance it may stall over the area next
weekend, which could lead to higher chances than currently forecast,
which is generally 20 percent or less. Confidence remains rather low
for the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Favorable marine conditions continue today as high pressure moves
overhead. Light and variable winds and seas less than 2 feet stick
around through Monday. Light to moderate southeasterly winds take
over Tuesday as seas increase to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Warming and moistening will continue through the next several days.
High pressure will remain overhead through Monday before pushing off
to the east Tuesday. Increasing transport winds on Tuesday will lead
to high dispersions in the afternoon for much of the area. Patchy
fog will become more likely in the mornings, but dense fog is not
expected at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Capitola, Chaires,
and Baum areas east to NE of Tallahassee near I-10 towards the
Jefferson County border this morning. Leon County continues to
report deep standing water hazardous and road closures to motorists
in the affected area. Conditions will be reassessed again later this
morning which could lead to another extension of the warning.

Rivers continue to run high with flood warnings in place for
Pinetta, Quitman, above Valdosta at Skipper Bridge Rd (Withlacoochee
River), the Little River near Hahira, Aucilla at Lamont, St. Marks
Newport, Thomasville, Spring Creek near Iron City, Chipola near
Altha, Blountstown, and Marianna.

The Flood Warning at Spring Creek near Iron City may be cancelled
later this morning as it is forecast to slowly recede into Action
Stage.

Expect minor to moderate riverine to continue into early next week.
Additional Flood Warnings may be needed along the Suwannee River
from Ellaville southward through Wilcox in the coming days. Moderate
flooding is not expected along the Suwannee.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase slightly, 20% or less, to
end the work week as a cold front nears the region. Significant
rainfall is not currently expected, but confidence is low until we
get a better handle on when the front could impact the region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  58  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        83  53  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        84  55  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  54  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  59  75  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese