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000
FXUS62 KTBW 210618
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
218 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The high pressure that has been dominating the past week, keeping
temperatures high and rain chances low, will finally have some
competition. Some shortwave energy will move across the northern
Gulf coast bringing along a surface boundary over Florida. Rain
chances will begin to increase this afternoon for norther zones.
Rain chances for southern areas begin to increase as the boundary
drifts southwards tonight into tomorrow. Storm Prediction Center
does keep a large swath of the area within a marginal risk for
severe weather. Main concern will be strong winds. Overall, rainfall
amounts will likely be low, with isolated areas receiving more
during thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, we return to a high pressure dominated weather pattern,
though a little cooler and quite dry thanks to the front.
Temperatures and dew points begin to increase as we move deeper into
the week and towards the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024


Mainly VFR conditions expected. Some patchy fog expected early this
morning mainly for areas north of I4, however areas prone to fog
could also be impacted. Scattered showers and storms will move
through the area overnight tonight into Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Light and variable winds overnight will turn SW and become gusty
this afternoon. A line of showers and possible storms will approach
the northern waters this afternoon before drifting further south
overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds will turn more
northerly behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

No major fire weather concerns for the next couple of days as RH
values increase thanks to a frontal boundary moving over the area
bringing a line of showers. Behind the front RH values drop once
again, however winds should stay below criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  70  79  62 /  10  40  30   0
FMY  86  71  84  65 /   0  10  30   0
GIF  89  69  80  60 /  10  30  50   0
SRQ  84  70  81  60 /   0  20  30   0
BKV  84  62  78  52 /  10  40  20   0
SPG  81  71  77  64 /  10  30  30   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn