Routine Space Environment Product (Daily) Issued by NWS
000
FXXX10 KWNP 131231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 13-Apr 15 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 13-Apr 15 2024
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
00-03UT 2.00 1.67 4.00
03-06UT 2.33 1.67 3.67
06-09UT 0.67 4.00 3.33
09-12UT 1.00 3.00 3.00
12-15UT 2.00 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 2.33 4.00 2.33
18-21UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 4.00 2.33
Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely
on 14 Apr due to a combination of CME and CH HSS influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2024
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 13 2024 0502 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2024
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 13-15 Apr.