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000
FXUS65 KTFX 232041
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
241 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Winds will begin to increase late tonight as surface high pressure
departs the Northern Rockies, with breezy and gusty winds then
expectedthrough the day on Wednesday. These breezy and gusty
southwest to west winds will help to push temperatures well above
normal across all of Southwest through North Central Montana on
Wednesday, with highs peaking in the 70s to potentially low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through Wednesday...H500 transient ridge axis will
slide east of the Northern Rockies through this evening, with the
upper level flow backing to the west to southwest in its wake ahead
of shortwave troughing moving over the Gulf of Alaska and Western
Canada. Pacific moisture (at least within the upper levels)
advecting northeast within this west to southwest flow aloft will
lead to increasing cloud cover from southwest to northeast through
the late afternoon and evening hours tonight. Surface flow will also
begin to veer to the south and west throughout the overnight hours
tonight as surface high pressure moves east of the Northern Rockies
and cyclogenesis occurs over Central Alberta ahead of the
aforementioned shortwave trough. These veering winds combined with
the increasing upper level cloudiness will help to keep temperatures
tonight some 5-10 degrees warmer than last night, with most
locations falling into the 30s. By Wednesday strong low level warm
air advection and downsloping winds will help to push high
temperatures into the 70s across most lower elevations, with even a
few locations approaching the low 80s over the plains of Central and
North Central Montana. Isolated to scattered rain and rain/snow
mountain showers will be possible from the late afternoon through
overnight hours on Wednesday across Southwest and Central Montana;
however, precipitation amounts beneath any given shower will be
light and generally less than 0.05". - Moldan

On Thursday an upper level disturbance moving over the Great Basin
towards the Central Rockies will help to spread precipitation north
across Southwest and into portions of Central Montana. For areas
along and south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor and west of US
Highway 287 south of Three Forks there is a 10 - 20% chance for a
0.10 of an inch of rain or greater. For the lower-elevations from
Three Forks to the Bozeman area south to the Idaho border there is a
15 - 40% chance of 0.25 of an inch of rain or greater on Thursday.
The rain in Southwestern Montana on Thursday could come in the form
of a thunderstorm. For the Gallatin and Madison ranges there is a 20
- 40% for a tenth of an inch of snow or greater on Thursday. -
IG/Moldan

Friday through next Tuesday... On Friday an upper-level trough will
begin to over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This
will bring cooler temperatures and precipitation to the area. This
upper-level trough will remain in place over North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana on Saturday. At this time precipitation
type/amount and how much cooler the area will get with this system
is uncertain. Additionally, currently it is likely that locations
along and south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor will receive the
highest total precipitation amounts. The mountains of Southwestern
Montana will most likely receive snow. This will need to continue to
be monitored for updates.

On Sunday clusters indicate that an upper-level ridge will most
likely move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
On Monday that upper-level ridge will most likely stay over the
area. This will bring a slight warm-up to North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana on Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday three of
the clusters (76% of ensemble members) indicate that there will be
an upper-level trough that begins to move toward Montana. This would
indicate a new weather system moving toward Montana. The other
cluster (24% of ensemble members) has zonal flow over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana which would keep status quo
weather for the area. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
1145 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 (23/18Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across the area today with
clear skies and light winds. High clouds will increase later
tonight. Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  77  47  66 /   0  10  20  10
CTB  33  72  39  64 /   0   0  10   0
HLN  39  77  46  67 /   0  10  20  20
BZN  34  74  45  64 /   0  10  20  60
WYS  28  64  38  53 /   0  20  30  90
DLN  35  70  43  63 /   0  10  20  40
HVR  38  75  44  69 /   0   0  10   0
LWT  35  72  43  63 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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