990
FNUS75 KTFX 010945
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Elk Smith Unit 13 Hand Piles-Goguen...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
345 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level low pressure system moving east across southern
Alberta will maintain cold westerly flow across the region today,
shifting to northwesterly tonight through Thursday. Snow showers
will develop this afternoon and become more numerous tonight with
periods of steady snow expected late tonight through Thursday. An
isolated weak thunderstorm is also possible this afternoon. Little
or no snow accumulation is expected through this evening with
total snow accumulation on Thursday of 1 to 3 inches possible.
This area look to be quite sheltered from the gusty westerly winds
that are expected in more exposed areas today but a few afternoon
gusts may reach lower in the drainage with breezy northwest to
northerly winds tonight through Thursday more likely to affect the
area.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers early in the morning, then snow showers
                    likely with a slight chance of a thunderstorm in
                    the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....40-45.
Min humidity........39-44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 8 to 14 mph with gusts to around
                    25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    showers in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 30 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow showers likely with
                    snow accumulation up to one inch.
CWR.................25 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....27-32.
Max humidity........Above 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 with gusts to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 25 mph.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Periods of snow
                    through the day with accumulation up to 2 inches.
CWR.................85 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....37-42.
Min humidity........62-67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
                    20 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hoenisch
Requested by...Brian Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412842.0/TFX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brian.peterson3@usda.gov