Flood Potential Outlook Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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FGUS73 KTOP 291717
ESFTOP
KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177-
197-201-010000-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued By National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1117 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024
...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Topeka Hydrologic Service Area
(HSA) which includes the Republican River, Solomon River, Smoky Hill
River, Big Blue River, Kansas River, Marais Des Cygnes River, Neosho
River, and their tributaries in north central, northeast and east
central Kansas.
...There is a near normal probability of flooding during the next
three months...
Outlook:
The probability of flooding through May is near normal across the
NWS Topeka HSA.
The greatest chances of minor flooding during the outlook period
range from 30 to 50 percent and include the following locations: Big
Blue River at Blue Rapids, Black Vermillion River at Frankfort, Mill
Creek at Paxico, Solomon River at Niles, Saline River at Tescott,
Salt Creek at Lyndon, Pottawatomie Creek at Garnett, Cottonwood
River from Emporia through Neosho Rapids, and Marias Des Cygnes
River from Reading through Ottawa.
Recent Conditions:
During the past 30 days, most locations were within a half inch on
either side of normal precipitation. Brown county in far northeast
Kansas had the lowest precipitation totals, where around a quarter
inch of liquid precipitation was observed. The highest 30-day
precipitation totals were observed generally along a line from
Manhattan, through Osage City, to Garnett. Liquid precipitation
amounts within this region were around an inch and a half.
Widespread above normal precipitation was observed across the
NWS Topeka HSA during the past 90-day period. Almost all locations
received in excess of 150 percent of normal precipitation with a
significant coverage of over 200 percent of normal. Liquid
precipitation amounts generally ranged from 2 to 5 inches above
normal.
Mean temperature the past 30 days was 9 to 12 degrees above normal
across the the Topeka HSA. Temperature values ranged in the lower to
middle 40s. 90-day mean temperatures were generally 2 to 5 degrees
above normal.
Present Conditions:
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that around 80 percent of
the Topeka HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions.
In addition, roughly 50 percent of the HSA is affected by moderate
drought.
There is currently little if any snow cover over Kansas and southern
Nebraska. In addition, no snow cover is found across the headwaters
of the Republican River in northeast Colorado.
USGS daily streamflow values across the region showed normal
streamflow conditions across the Marias Des Cygnes and Neosho
Basins. Below normal streamflow was observed across the Republican,
Little Blue, Big Blue, and Kansas Basin upstream of Lawrence.
Future Conditions:
Over the next 7 days, a tenth of an inch or less of liquid
precipitation is expected across the Topeka HSA.
The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favoring
above normal temperatures and precipitation.
Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal
regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of
above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the
United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above
normal amounts across the NWS Topeka HSA.
The final 2024 Spring Flood Outlook will be issued March 14, 2024.
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In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Big Blue River
Marysville 35.0 38.2 43.0 : <5 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 19.0 19.4 45.0 : 5 6 5 6 <5 <5
:Mill Creek
Washington 18.0 19.0 35.0 : 20 30 19 25 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Barnes 16.0 23.0 39.0 : 27 34 5 8 <5 <5
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 51 62 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 37 49 <5 5 <5 <5
:Fancy Creek
Randolph 16.0 24.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 19.0 26.0 37.0 : 17 31 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 21.0 35.0 39.0 : 26 35 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 22.0 32.0 44.0 : 14 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 9 18 <5 5 <5 <5
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 12 21 7 13 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Manhattan 18.0 26.0 42.0 : 13 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
Wamego 19.0 26.0 38.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 12 24 <5 8 <5 <5
:Rock Creek
Louisville 27.0 33.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Belvue 20.0 28.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cross Creek
Rossville 25.0 29.0 31.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Mill Creek
Paxico 21.0 31.0 33.0 : 34 38 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Topeka 26.0 27.0 44.0 : 8 6 6 6 <5 <5
:Soldier Creek
Delia 26.0 26.5 29.5 : 5 6 <5 5 <5 <5
Topeka 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Lecompton 17.0 23.8 27.0 : 16 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lawrence 18.0 20.0 29.0 : 14 18 6 6 <5 <5
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 23.0 25.0 45.0 : 9 10 5 5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Scandia 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 6 12 5 8 <5 7
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 11 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Concordia 15.0 18.0 30.0 : <5 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Elk Creek
Clyde 14.0 22.0 36.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Clay Center 15.0 22.5 28.0 : 23 35 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Solomon River
Glasco 22.0 25.0 34.0 : 12 32 7 25 <5 <5
Minneapolis 26.0 30.0 38.0 : 6 16 <5 7 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Ada 18.0 20.0 24.0 : 8 23 7 21 <5 <5
:Solomon River
Niles 24.0 28.0 34.0 : 41 59 30 50 <5 <5
:Saline River
Tescott 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 34 37 18 33 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 27.0 30.0 33.0 : 16 29 9 14 <5 <5
:Mud Creek
Abilene 15.0 27.0 33.0 : 7 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 27 45 26 43 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 47 51 46 50 <5 <5
Quenemo 17.0 24.5 40.5 : 59 55 29 32 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 42 47 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 30.0 33.0 45.0 : 43 46 9 10 <5 <5
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 26.0 32.0 34.0 : 34 37 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lane 23.0 24.0 28.5 : 16 16 14 14 <5 <5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 21.0 23.5 40.0 : 9 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cottonwood River
Emporia 20.0 24.0 32.0 : 35 35 20 18 <5 <5
:Neosho River
Americus 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 10 10 6 <5 <5 <5
Emporia 19.0 19.5 30.5 : 26 21 24 20 <5 <5
Neosho Rapids 22.0 23.0 44.0 : 38 33 34 30 <5 <5
Burlington 27.0 40.0 45.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Leroy 23.0 23.0 38.0 : 14 11 14 11 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville 14.9 16.5 18.2 23.1 29.5 30.9 33.0
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 3.3 3.6 5.1 9.2 11.4 14.3 18.9
:Mill Creek
Washington 2.0 2.5 6.0 11.4 14.1 21.6 21.8
:Little Blue River
Barnes 5.8 6.3 8.5 11.7 16.8 19.8 24.0
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 18.1 18.9 23.0 26.3 32.2 35.0 41.1
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 6.5 8.8 11.8 15.2 23.7 27.0 27.3
:Fancy Creek
Randolph 1.0 2.2 3.0 4.7 7.4 12.3 13.8
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 4.3 4.8 6.0 9.2 14.1 20.3 22.1
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 6.5 6.9 8.9 11.6 22.3 30.3 31.2
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 3.2 4.0 6.1 8.8 18.5 23.9 25.4
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 5.9 7.3 8.8 11.1 16.5 20.3 23.6
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.6 7.1 15.5 19.9
:Kansas River
Manhattan 6.7 7.1 8.3 9.9 15.4 18.8 21.6
Wamego 5.0 5.8 6.5 9.4 13.6 15.7 18.4
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego 3.5 4.2 8.1 10.8 16.6 22.3 23.2
:Rock Creek
Louisville 9.5 9.7 11.2 13.0 17.9 22.6 23.4
:Kansas River
Belvue 8.0 8.4 8.9 11.0 14.3 17.8 18.3
:Cross Creek
Rossville 8.7 9.1 13.1 15.0 20.7 23.4 24.8
:Mill Creek
Paxico 4.2 5.1 7.0 11.2 24.7 28.3 29.7
:Kansas River
Topeka 8.4 8.7 10.2 13.1 17.7 24.9 28.1
:Soldier Creek
Delia 6.8 7.0 9.4 16.3 22.8 23.9 25.9
Topeka 1.5 2.3 5.1 9.4 15.6 20.8 21.9
:Kansas River
Lecompton 5.0 5.1 7.1 10.0 14.8 19.1 21.0
Lawrence 9.2 9.4 10.8 12.9 16.0 18.7 21.2
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 5.2 6.2 8.7 14.4 20.0 22.7 24.9
:Republican River
Scandia 2.3 2.5 3.3 4.2 8.2 9.7 12.5
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 1.0 1.0 2.5 9.1 13.6 16.2 17.5
:Republican River
Concordia 5.7 6.0 6.5 8.0 12.2 13.3 14.8
:Elk Creek
Clyde 4.5 4.8 5.9 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.2
:Republican River
Clay Center 7.8 8.4 10.0 12.1 14.9 17.0 19.0
:Solomon River
Glasco 3.5 3.5 4.2 6.7 18.3 23.9 26.6
Minneapolis 2.1 2.1 2.8 4.8 13.3 17.9 26.8
:Salt Creek
Ada 3.1 3.1 3.8 5.5 9.4 16.3 20.2
:Solomon River
Niles 3.2 5.5 9.4 22.2 28.2 29.4 29.7
:Saline River
Tescott 5.6 5.6 6.1 10.1 28.0 30.6 31.1
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 5.7 7.5 11.9 16.1 22.2 29.8 30.5
:Mud Creek
Abilene 1.5 1.5 4.3 5.8 10.4 13.6 15.5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 9.0 10.9 14.2 17.7 27.6 31.1 33.3
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 3.9 5.0 6.1 15.0 23.4 24.4 24.8
Quenemo 2.3 4.0 10.5 18.9 25.0 28.8 29.8
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 1.6 1.7 2.7 8.9 12.0 14.5 15.2
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 6.2 7.4 13.3 24.5 32.2 32.9 34.7
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 9.9 10.4 19.1 23.9 26.6 28.2 30.0
Lane 7.6 8.0 11.4 16.9 21.9 24.8 25.8
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 0.8 3.9 7.1 11.8 15.9 20.5 23.0
:Cottonwood River
Emporia 3.7 4.9 8.0 15.9 23.1 26.1 26.4
:Neosho River
Americus 5.9 6.2 8.6 12.1 22.8 26.2 27.3
Emporia 10.8 11.2 12.1 14.0 19.3 23.8 24.2
Neosho Rapids 3.7 4.7 9.4 19.1 25.4 28.2 29.9
Burlington 8.6 9.1 13.6 21.9 23.2 25.4 28.1
Leroy 5.2 7.4 12.6 18.8 20.2 24.2 26.1
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.6
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
:Mill Creek
Washington 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Little Blue River
Barnes 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.0
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1
:Fancy Creek
Randolph 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5
:Kansas River
Manhattan 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Wamego 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.0 2.0
:Rock Creek
Louisville 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6
:Kansas River
Belvue 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5
:Cross Creek
Rossville 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9
:Mill Creek
Paxico 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
:Kansas River
Topeka 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7
:Soldier Creek
Delia 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2
:Kansas River
Lecompton 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
Lawrence 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
:Republican River
Scandia 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Republican River
Concordia 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
:Elk Creek
Clyde 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:Republican River
Clay Center 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8
:Solomon River
Glasco 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Minneapolis 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
:Salt Creek
Ada 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Solomon River
Niles 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9
:Saline River
Tescott 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
:Mud Creek
Abilene 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
Quenemo 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.6
Lane 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water
information.
$$
SAW