Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS63 KUNR 161650
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1050 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
127 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

- Dry weather continues. Breezy at times with elevated fire
  weather conditions through Mon/Tue

- Cooler with increasing chances for precipitation for the last
  half of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 127 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Current surface map places deep low north of Lake Superior with
cold front moving into northern South Dakota. Cold front moves
through before daybreak, with cooler/breezy conditions today.
Sunday will be the coolest day as surface high drops into the
Dakotas. Will still be breezy, especially on the western South
Dakota plains with combination of steep low level lapse and
20-30kt winds at the top of the mixed layer.

Northwest flow aloft continues early this coming week with deep
trough across Hudson Bay into the northeastern CONUS and riding
across the Rockies. Low level thermal profiles peak on Monday,
support highs in the 60s.

Flow becomes more zonal for the end of the week, though large
uncertainties exist with timing/placement of embedded impulses
crossing the Northern Plains. While chances for precipitation
increase, the probability of >0.25" of QPF in a 24 hour period is
less than 20%

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1039 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Gusty northwest winds over the western SD plains will decrease
early this evening. Areas of MVFR CIGS are possible after 09Z on
Sunday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 127 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Dry and breezy conditions continue across the area this weekend.
Even though high temperatures will only be in the 40s to lower 50s
today and upper 30s to mid 40s on Sunday, gusty northwest winds
and relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent will result in elevated
fire weather conditions. Monday will be the warmest day with highs
in the 60s. Minimum relative humidity will drop into the teens for
parts of the area. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions are expected Monday afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...7


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.