Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 291955
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
155 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Friday Night)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Current surface map places trof over central Montana into eastern
Wyoming. Shortwave lifting through northern Utah/southwest
Wyoming will track into southeast Montana overnight. with steep
mid level lapse rates, isolated showers possible across portions
of northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota. Another mild
day for the area on Friday. Forecast soundings indicate MLCAPE
near 500J/KG across the Black Hills so isolated afternoon
thunderstorms possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Strong upper ridge axis will cross the central CONUS
Sat, bringing continued warm and generally dry weather -- except for
isolated afternoon storms over the BH. As upper flow becomes
southwesterly, chances for showers/storms will increase late Sunday,
and cooler air will push into the area. A west coast low pressure
system will begin to approach the region early next week. The latest
run of the ECMWF shows a more northerly track of the low, while the
more southerly GFS solution brings colder air into the CWA. Both
models show the potential for plenty of precipitation, and wrap-
around precip toward the middle of the week may even bring some snow
to portions of the area. Overall next week looks cool and wet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 135 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Isolated showers are possible this evening across
northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Could see MVFR
cigs/vis in some of the heavier showers. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...McKemy



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