Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 171606
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1006 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
130 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

-Dry weather continues. Breezy at times with elevated fire weather
 conditions through Tuesday

-Cooler with increasing chances for precipitation for the last
 half of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 130 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Current surface map shows high pressure across central Canada
extending into the Northern Plains/Dakotas. Hudson Bay upper low
remains in place through much of the week, with northwest flow
across the Northern Plains. Today will be cool and breezy as
surface high drops southward. Chilly night tonight as high
settles in across the Dakotas. On Monday, high slides east
allowing warm front/surface trof to move through western South
Dakota. Robust low level warm advection will boost highs into the
60s. Will be another breezy day, especially across northwestern
South Dakota. Next cold front drops backs into the area
Tuesday/Wednesday with baroclinic zone stalling out over the
Northern Plains. Fast moving clipper late Wednesday/Thursday sets
the stage for a banded snow event along the baroclinic zone.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance take higher probabilities of
precipitation north of the forecast area.

Heading into next weekend, upper trough digs across the western
CONUS and moves into the plains late in forecast period.
Deterministic runs of GFS/ECMWF/GEM have trended towards a better
chance of precipitation/accumulating snow across the forecast
area. However, very low confidence in any single model run at this
time given the lack of consistency in timing/strength/placement
of surface low. GEFS/EPS ensemble means still paint higher
precipitation probabilities/QPF amounts south and east of the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1003 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

AREAS MVFR CIGS will occur from northwestern into south central
South Dakota through this afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail. Northerly winds will gust to 30-35 kts over much of the
western SD plains through this afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...10


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