Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 301648
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CROSSING WCNTRL CANADA AND QUICKLY PUSHING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN WAVE HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NE. STRATUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW SD PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/STRATUS COULD MAKE TODAYS ACTUAL TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...BUT
FOR NOW AM GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NW SD...AND
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WINDS
BECOME MORE NERLY...AND NAM/SREF SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE BLKHLS. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN UNUSUALLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE S/SE. WINDS MAY EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER CNTRL SD TO 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER
NE WY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING IN TIME FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FRI EVNG.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO
ONLY EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77






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