Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 200508

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1008 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Friday Night)
Issued at 154 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

The thermal ridge that has helped to produce the warmer than
average temperatures over much of the forecast area during the
past few days will shift farther off to the east as a weak cold
front moves thought at the sfc...this will lead to cooler
temperatures on Friday, closer to the average for this time of

The latest water vapor sat images show the west coast trough
continues to move inland. On Friday, a short wave ahead of the
upper trough will bring a chance of light rain/snow as lift is
enhanced along the frontal boundary in northeastern Wyoming.
There will also be a chance of light snow or flurries along the
boundary on Friday evening, over parts of northeastern Wyoming,
the Black Hills area and southwestern into south central South
Dakota. Any snow accumulation will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

Dry weather is expected this weekend, as models are
showing upper ridging developing over the region a little earlier.
Temperatures will be near average, in the 30s. Early next week, a
broad trough will move through the western and central states. The
12Z EC/GFS runs are still in fairly good agreement with bringing a
closed low across KS/NE Tuesday, but the GFS has a slightly more
northerly track. Both of these solutions could bring some snow
accumulation to the area. The EC and GFS are ranging anywhere from 2
to 10 inches respectively, but changes are still expected
considering this is still 6 days out.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 1006 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

Fog and stratus will bring IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility to portions
of northwest South Dakota and south central South Dakota tonight
and early Friday morning. Area of snow will affect northeast
Wyoming into southwest South Dakota Friday into Friday evening
with MVFR/IFR conditions.




LONG TERM...Pojorlie
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