Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 091733
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1133 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AS THE HIGH SLIDES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND LATEST IR
SAT IMAGES SHOW SOME ACCAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA SO HAVE EXPANDED THE LOW POPS FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH
THE MUCH OF THE MORNING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL OVER MOST THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER NERN WY/BLKHLS/AND SWRN
SD WILL BE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER SFC BASED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. WITH WEAK SERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA THIS EVENING...REACHING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF
LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA....BRINGING
NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...15






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