000
FXUS63 KUNR 150103
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
703 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

HAVE ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR NWRN SD AS WINDS ARE
DECREASING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SLOWLY RISING. REST OF FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE...AND HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. 18Z NAM/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW 100-300J/KG
ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION.
ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY...WITH NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
INTO THE BLACK HILLS. WITH LACK OF FORCING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSES NORTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALSO
MAY BRING THE FIRST REAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY THROUGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS COOLER AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...JOHNSON