Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 242306
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
506 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WINDS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY OVER FAR NWRN
SD TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS DEEP LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA DIVES
THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING...WITH NARROW AXIS OF LIFT ALONG THE SD/NE
BORDER. BEST LIFT SHIFTS SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER AT LEAST THE BLACK HILLS AND THE BEAR
LODGE MYS...AND POSSIBLY OVER NW SD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
CHANCE OF PRECIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA. A SECONDARY CDFNT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW RATHER WDSPRD
MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD SWD ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD. SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM NERN WY INTO
SWRN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON





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