Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 270427
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA THE GREAT BASIN NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FRACTURING AS THE NRN
STREAM CONTINUES EWD AND THE SRN BASE BECOMING THE NEXT WRN CONUS
CUT OFF LOW. SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE PERIODS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE CO/NEB AREA. MODELS ARE VARYING WITH
TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WITHIN THE
CWA. EITHER WAY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS CROSSING AREAS NEAR THE NEB
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY MAINLY
DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN DECREASING
WED NIGHT INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MAY BRING A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
WARMER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN JET
STREAM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 250-500J/KG MLCAPE WITH ERODING CAP. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLACK HILLS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LONG WAVE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SMALL THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LINGERING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH OF I-90. LCL MVFR VSBY WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...AND MAY PERSIST INTO WED AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.