Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 190526
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1126 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY...WITH CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND DECREASING WINDS. NEXT UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...REACHING INTO NORTHEASTERN
WY AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SD BY MORNING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT...850H TEMPS BELOW
ZERO...NORTHEASTERN WY AND BLACK HILLS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW MIXED
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TONIGHT...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY. AREAS NOT UNDER
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY SEE FROST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE FROST
ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNINGS FOR NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. DECREASED MAX TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO EJECT
SYSTEMS OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
RAIN/MORNING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
WEAKER SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTER A COOL DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY TUES MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE OVER CA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH TUE
MRNG...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP. EXPECT MVFR CIGS FOR
THE BLKHLS AND PARTS OF NERN WY AFTER 09Z...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
SPREADING OVER NERN WY/SWRN SD FROM 12-18Z. SCT SHRA ALSO SHOULD
MOVE INTO THIS AREA AFTER 12Z...WITH SHSN FOR THE HIGHER BLHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ012-031-044-073.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     013-014-032-043-046-047-049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC


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