Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 221007
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
307 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST
SK...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH TROF DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED
OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST WY
INTO SOUTHWEST SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER
NORTHWEST SD TO NEAR 10 OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD. NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 20 BELOW ARE
NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW...LOWEST OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD.

ARCTIC CHILL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP AGAIN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE TREND OF LATE CONTINUES. FOR
TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT SKIES SHOULD AT
LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MIDDAY. HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE TEENS
TODAY...WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW ZERO THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD THROUGH THE
DAY AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS THERE.

TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. SOME WARMER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
BRINGING SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOWARD
MORNING.

WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST ON
MONDAY...WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALLOWING IT TO BE MIXED
DOWN TO THE GROUND IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME QUITE BRISK. UNDER LOTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH SOME AREAS
AROUND 40 TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES...MOSTLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
REACHING CLOSE TO 50F DEGREES...AS THERMAL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
CWFA AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT. THAT NEXT FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH RATHER WDSPRD LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY GIVEN UPPER ENERGY AND LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. DRY BUT
COLD CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION
IN TEMPS BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
ERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW FROM NERN WY INTO FAR WRN SD WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE VFR
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON





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