Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 171723
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH THE
MAIN AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA. NW WINDS OVER NW SD INTO THE NRN
BLKHLS CONTINUES WITH LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THESE AREAS.
NAM/RUC/HRRR SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH INDIVIDUAL TIMINGS VARY. HAVE
UPDATED THE PACKAGE TO REFLECT THIS DELAY IN DISSIPATION. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS PUSHING SOME
CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL A BIT
BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL SD...WITH WINDS DECREASING TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS ARE DIPPING INTO THE 30S ACROSS CLEARER
AND CALMER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. FARTHER EAST WHERE IT IS
CLOUDIER AND WINDIER...TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 50.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION...WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS STICKING AROUND CENTRAL SD
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...SO DECREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THERE.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. BREEZIER WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WY MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER THERE.

RETURN FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
BRINGING IN WARMER AND MOISTER AIR. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP LOWS STAY MAINLY IN
THE 40S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.


&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY. UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY
SPLITS...WITH BEST LIFT SHIFTING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
RIDGE REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID-AFTERNOON. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
OVER KRAP... KGCC WILL SEE WINDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...MCKEMY/MLS





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