Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 011714
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT QUICKLY EAST THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 324 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LARGE TROF ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
WITH RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGING SNOW TO
THE AREA AT THE MOMENT IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST WITH SKIES
CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH IS
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

TODAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT QUICKLY EAST AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW
WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY...IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...TO THE MID 20S IN NE WYOMING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY...NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRAZE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. SOME WEAK ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BETTER DEFINED
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK AFFECT THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. SNOW MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BECOMES STRONGER. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A WIDE
VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL AID
IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS AND -SN. THE CIGS/VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE TODAY AS THE SNOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...POJORLIE






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