Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 011708
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL SHIFT CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HILLS.
STRONG CANADIAN LOW THEN BEGINS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW...BUT A MOSTLY DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING ZONAL FLOW AND DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
BUT NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY...WITH
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26



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