Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KUNR 011715
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT NOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MT TO CENTRAL SD...WITH A SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AND SUFFICIENT
THETA-E ADVECTION...IS HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD AT THIS
POINT. SOME SMALL HAIL IS ACCOMPANYING A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MAINLY SUNNY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S AT THIS HOUR. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BREEZY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS FURTHER TO THE WEST.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THERE IN THE
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES AT THAT TIME. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE BLACK HILLS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
SD. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

HAVE UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...MAINLY FOR LATE THIS
MORNING. ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER WAVE IS CROSS NCNTRL MT ATTM
PUSHING SE TOWARD THE CWA. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER ERN MT. GOOD RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CWA IS RESULTING IN ENOUGH THETA E ADVECTION FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP FROM SCNTRL SD TOWARD MEADE/BUTTE BORDER...AND ALSO NEAR
NEMO/BLACK HAWK. TODAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE CWA AS
THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME
NWRLY BEHIND THE FROPA WHICH WILL BE OF A DRYLINE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...ENDING ANY
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. BY LATE
AFTN...THE ONLY CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE NEB
BORDER...AND THESE CHANCES SHOULD END BY EARLY EVNG. DRIER LOW
LEVELS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL HINDER ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE
TROF. MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE
BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...10


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.