Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 031456
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
756 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

LOOKING AT LATEST WEB CAMS...RADAR LOOPS...AND 12Z RAP...WILL SHAVE
SOME OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. GOOD
DRYING COMING IN AND LESS SNOW THAN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...SO EVEN WITH GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED REFLECTED
FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
DECENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z ACROSS WESTERN
SD...WHERE FGEN/UVM/LSA ARE CURRENTLY COUPLED AND MAXIMIZED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN IS WAKE THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. SIG BL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SAVE FOR A WEAK
UPSLOPE RESPONSE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HILLS...DRY WX EXPECT TO
PREVAIL MOST PLACES TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

TODAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NE OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK WANE TO SNOW...WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WHERE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
QUICKER WANE TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
WANE AS BL DRYING HIGHLY IMPACTS SNOW PRODUCTION THERE BY LATE
MORNING. HENCE...MANY OF THE HEADLINES COULD LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATE THIS MORNING...ON TRACK WITH MOST HEADLINE EXPIRATIONS. WILL
DROP THE FAR NW SD ZONES FROM THE WINTER WX ADV. SNOW HAS NOT
REALLY MATERIALIZED THERE AND AT MOST ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS
EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT LOOKS
TO SEE SNOW ACCUMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES AT MOST WOULD BE EXPECTED THERE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN NORTHERN STEAM
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
WEAK UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. BL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED...HENCE SNOW PROBS REMAIN VERY LOW. ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED NW WINDS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR WINDCHILL ADV CONDS ACROSS THE NW SD ZONES.

WED...SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WX AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. COLD CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE TEENS. WAA WILL ENSUE WED NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SEEING RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THAT CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT KRAP AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KRAP ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024-
     025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ030>032-042>044-046-047-049.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ027-
     029-041-074.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15



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