Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 310928
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
328 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSING CNTRL TO ERN MT
INTO NRN WY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING
THRU ERN MT/CNTRL WY TOWARD THE CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE
60S/70S...EVEN 80S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING N/NE BLKHLS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...OBS SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING WRN
SD...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS VIRGA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NE WY TO WRN
SD IN THE NEXT 4/5 HOURS OR SO...AND CLEAR SCNTRL SD BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE WRN SD PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLKHLS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER JUST FOR COUPLE HOURS OR SO
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA. COULD SEE LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT WILL REASSESS CLOSER
TO 12Z. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP BY MON NGHT/TUE MRNG WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUE/TUE NGHT WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION AND COOLER AIR FLOWS IN AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



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