Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 241703
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER EASTERN WY...WHILE SURFACE LOW IS OVER
CENTRAL SD. OBS INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY...BUT MUCH OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN THE DRY
SLOT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS MORNING
ACCORDINGLY. WEBCAMS AND OBS INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG LINGERS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3 OF
THE CWA IS UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WHILE SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL SD HAS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS ARE FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS...AND TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY TO THE MID
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER WYOMING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
WESTERN SD...WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN SD. WINDS
ARE BREEZY FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS AROUND THE LOW...AND TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...TO THE 60S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

TODAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN SD...AND PRECIP AND
COOLER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND INTO NORTHWESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN
WY. COOLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOWFALL...WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS AS SOME MELTING IS EXPECTED. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT WILL FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. WITH CLOUDS/RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND SUNNY SKIES WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...A WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TODAY...AND MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS...TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT STILL WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF
IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN SD INTO NORTHEASTERN
WY...DECREASING EASTWARD WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR SO ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA...KEEPING BEST
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL...IN THE 40S TO MID
50S. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP INCREASING FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

ACTIVE/SEMI-PROGRESSIVE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACTIVE
JET AND ASSOCIATED IMPULSES WILL TRACK INTO THE SW CONUS AND EJECT
NE INTO THE PLAINS. H7 STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT SOUTH...SUPPORTING
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS WELL AS COOLER CONDS WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LL FLOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW...ESP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS...EVEN PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS BY WED.
CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM
GIVEN CLOUDS/PROGGED PRECIP/AND A HEAVY TREND IN MODEL DATA TOWARD
E/NE UPSLOPE FLOW. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA
COULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WHERE FGEN FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LL MOISTURE ADVECTION...ESP IF MID
LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP AND TRACK OVER NEBRASKA AS IS
LOOKING TO BE THE CASE WITH THE THE TUE-WED SYSTEM. SNOW ACCUMS
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT- WED...ESP THE
BLACK HILLS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ALL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW/CAA INTO THE SYSTEM/AND WETBULB
EFFECTS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS IN THE PERIOD...ESP TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACRS NERN WY AND NWRN
SD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING EWD
THROUGH THE REST OF WRN SD LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. SCT
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN/EVE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JOHNSON



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