Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 181758
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1158 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA.
FOR TODAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH WEAK TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVE MLCAPE AROUND 1000J/KG ALONG SURFACE
TROF...WITH DEEP MIXING ERODING CAP. LATEST RUN OF HRRR/LOCAL WRF
SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER BLACK HILLS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG SURFACE TROF FROM
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND SUFFICIENT D-CAPE...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH INSTABILITY
AXIS/WEAK TROF LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ZONAL UPPER FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER PRECIP.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...76
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13





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