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000
FXUS63 KUNR 131658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1058 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA.
UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DEEP WAA. INCREASE LL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CIRRUS STREAMING AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S AT MANY PLACES. A MIXED BL WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT...ESP OVER THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS...GIVEN A NEAR
5 MB SFC PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL FROM THE BH TO THE PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
NEAR THE ND BORDER...WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
HARDING AND PERKINS COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SD AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY THE
DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SD PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HAVE A LOOK AT
UPDATED MODEL DATA FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND WHETHER A FIRE WX WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

UPPER FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED. WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CHANCES LIKELY INCREASING BY THE WEEKEND.
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER UPPER TROF
IMPACTING THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

ISOLD -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BLKHLS BRINGING
LCL MVFR VIS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...77