Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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784
FXUS63 KUNR 081733
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1033 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN. STILL A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 20-30 KTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S.

REGION WILL STAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS TODAY...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW-END
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...AND WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...AND AS SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
ENERGY MOVE OVER THE REGION...MAY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS.
OVERALL THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR WRN ZONES AND W/NW BL FLOW (DOWNSLOPE) PREVAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO THE CWFA. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ANTICIPATED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR WRN ZONES...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY ON THE SD
PLAINS. SOME WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON THE WY PLAINS THIS EVENING
AS STRONG FLOW REMAINS ABOVE THE SFC.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



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