Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 291723
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS CROSSING THE NRN PLAIN ATTM AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO
NW SD...HOWEVER WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LITTLE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A SECONDARY AND MUCH STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NE THU MORNING BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. HAVE
DROPPED MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWFA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWFA SO ONLY EXPECTING SMALL
CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND DRY WX EXPECTED ONCE THE
TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...15






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