Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 260924
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
324 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW NEAR THE ERN SD/ERN NEB BORDER...WITH
NEXT UPPER LOW OVER ERN WA. AT THE SFC...HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
WRN DAKOTAS.

TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS MRNG WITH RESIDUAL
LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR ERN WY AND WRN SD ATTEMPTING TO ERODE. SHORT
WAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOWS WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SD PLAINS TODAY.
HOWEVER...STABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE ACRS NERN WY INTO THE
BLKHLS BY LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN WITH RETURN FLOW/CONVERGENCE
RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS EVEN FURTHER. SVR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK BUT COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS. SHRA/TSRA MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT IN THE WRN ZONES AS LLJ DEVELOPS AND SHORT WAVE EJECTS
THRU MT/WY.

WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM THE PAC NW LOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND RESULT IN MORE SHRA/TSRA EXPANDING EWD
ACROSS THE CWFA. MLCAPE VALUES TO NEARLY 1000J/KG COMBINED WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SVR STORMS FROM THE BLKHLS EWD. CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE LIFTS TO OUR NE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN
AND SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. BY THE
WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM UP FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15


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