Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 211707
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH IS TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST DOWN-SLOPING FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE WINDS COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
WESTERN SD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AND A COOL FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN THE 60S...WITH 50S IN THE HILLS.



&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO
EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
READINGS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE CWA. RESULT WILL
BE COOL-DOWN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BE SOME
-SHSN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH BASED -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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