Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 062056
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
256 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY EXIST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS FOR AN ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY DECREASE
VISIBILILTY IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN WY. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850/700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ANOTHER COUPLE
PASSING WAVES. ECM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MT AND
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE ECM A BIT STRONGER. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN BOTH MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE WED/THU...WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE FROM SMOKE. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION
LATER TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE


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