Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 160504
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1004 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Monday Night)
Issued at 125 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

Tranquil weather persists over the nrn plains with dry zonal flow
aloft. Skies are mostly sunny across the cwfa with mild temps from
nern WY through the Blkhls into srn SD. Pockets of cold temps
persist across nwrn SD where winds are light and snow cover is
deeper.

Upper level low currently lifting into far wrn TX will track newd
tonight and Monday. Some light freezing rain or snow could just
brush our scntrl SD zones beginning late tonight into Monday
afternoon, but the rest of the cwfa will remain dry. Temps will be
near seasonal average behind a weak cold front that moves through.
This front will lower high temps in the Blkhls where current
readings are as high as the lower 50s, but will actually warm
temps over parts of nwrn SD where northwest winds will scour out
any remaining arctic air.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

A dry and mild weather pattern can be expected for much of the
week. Ridging will help to bring above average temperatures across
the CWA by midweek. Snow cover will limit temperature potential in
some areas, especially northeast of the Black Hills toward north
central SD, where deeper snowpack is in place. Highs Wednesday and
Thursday will be in the upper 30s and 40s across much of the area,
with 50s across the eastern slopes of the Black Hills into the
foothills.

The pattern will become more unsettled by the weekend as a large
upper trough develops over the western US. Disturbances are expected
to move out of this trough and across the region starting on Friday.
Medium range models diverge on timing, track, and strength of these
disturbances, but most areas should see some chances for mostly snow
during the period. Temperatures will drop back to more seasonable
levels over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1004 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

VFR conditions will continue across the area through Monday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7



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