Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

FXUS63 KUNR 170947

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
247 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

Current surface map shows warm front moving into eastern
Montana/eastern Wyoming. Warm temperatures also found across the
Black Hills. Warm front continues to move east today, allowing
temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s for much of
the forecast area. Upper ridge shifts across the area Thursday,
with ridge shifting east of the area Friday as upper trof moves
into the western CONUS. Highs 10-20F above average for much of the

Upper trof crosses the Rockies late Saturday and into the plains
Sunday. Decent agreement with GFS/ECMWF/GEM with Saturday/Saturday
night in developing area of snow across northeast Wyoming into
western South Dakota. Enhanced lift provided by right entrance
region of jet located from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes.
Ensemble guidance still shows wide range in qpf/snowfall as there
is some NW-SE differences in location of best lift. As upper trof
moves into the plains Sunday, upper low closes off over the
central plains. Precipitation shifts south and east of the
forecast area Sunday night as upper low tracks eastward.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1020 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast




AVIATION...Sherburn is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.