Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 011705
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1105 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING. A
FEW MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING THIS MORNING AND
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHORTWAVE WILL BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING..WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR LOW END OF GUIDANCE. STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY...WITH
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUNNY AND WARMER
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NW SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA
WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. ABOVE AVG TEMPS WED WILL GIVE
WAY TO COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS THUR. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS UPPER WAVES
CROSS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. THE ECM IS DRIER...SO WILL GO WITH
SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. NEAR TO BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD THIS
AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA.
PRECIP WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...79
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BUNKERS



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