Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 242317
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
517 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH SW
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS NOTED LIFTING OUT OF NRN NV INTO NRN UT/WRN
WY. AT THE SFC...BROAD HIGH COVERS NERN WY/WRN SD/NWRN NEB.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER ENERGY THIS AFTN LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HOWEVER...HIGHER RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING GENERALLY NORTH/I-90. MLCAPE IS IN THE
500-1000J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONGER TO SVR
STORM OR TWO IF ANY THING DEVELOPS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS AFORMENTIONED WAVE APPROACHES OUR WRN/NRN
ZONES. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER SCNTRL SD GIVEN MODEST
THETA-E ADVECTION/LLJ.

SATURDAY...ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MRNG WITH UPPER WAVE
CROSSING OUR NRN ZONES. SURFACE LOW CROSSING THROUGH WRN SD WILL
AID IN MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN...WITH BEST SVR
THREAT IN OUR CNTRL SD ZONES WHERE MLCAPE OF 2000-3000J/KG AND
MODEST SHEAR EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PAC COAST
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE LOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CNTRL SD
PLAINS IN THE 60S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG A COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
CWA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LCL MVFR
VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...WARD
AVIATION...7



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