000
FXUS63 KUNR 132104
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
304 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE MAIN AXIS CROSSING WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE CWA HAVE RISEN INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. KUDX RADAR SHOWS WEAK
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HOT SPRINGS TO ROCHFORD TO NEMO.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
COOLING TAKES OVER. QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALSO BRING GUSTY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS TO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN FOOTHILLS...WHICH WOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WARMER LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
MORNING...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 70S
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 80S AHEAD OF IT. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS THE SD PLAINS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOR A 2 TO 4
HOUR PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES
QUICKLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS WINDS MAY REACH
HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT THEN BE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. LIKEWISE WINDS
CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THEN WEAKEN
BELOW CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
NOW...AND LET UPCOMING SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z DATA BEFORE
DECIDING WHAT HEADLINES MIGHT BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH A WEAK WAVE SLIDING THRU MAY BRING A SHOWER
OR STORM OVER THE BLACK HILLS. DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARDS
THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

ISOLD -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BLKHLS BRINGING
LCL MVFR VIS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR SDZ261-266.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...77