536
FNUS73 KUNR 251137
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Schenk Canyon Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
537 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Southerly winds will continue through the day ahead of
a cold front. The cold front will move through the burn area early
this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Black
Hills this afternoon and evening, with the best chance of thunderstorms
over the burn area from 1600-2000. Rainfall amounts around 0.25" is
possible from the thunderstorms. Along with the threat of lightning,
the thunderstorms could produce some hail along with strong/erratic
winds. Winds shift to the north-northwest behind the cold front
this evening and continue through Friday. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected overnight through Friday with another 0.25"
of rainfall possible.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (75-85 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely after 1500.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........32-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    south in the afternoon. Gusts of 15 to 20 mph
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......9100 to 9600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 20 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    slight chance of showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........85-90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds becoming north 5 to 10 mph 1800-2000. Gusts to
                    around 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................45 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........Around 55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around
                    30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................75 percent.
LAL.................2.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4600 to 5100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North around 25 mph increasing to around 35 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...KC
Requested by...Josh Behlings
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412408.0/UNR
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Joshua.behlings@usda.gov