National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXAK69 PAFG 202348
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
348 PM AKDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER INTERIOR THROUGH TUE THEN
DRIFTING EAST. RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING OF THE AIR MASS TO NORTHERN
ALASKA. LOW OVER SOUTHERN BERING SEA MOVING TO BERING STRAIT WED
EVENING AND TO CENTRAL CHUKCHI SEA THU AFTERNOON. SECOND LOW
MOVING TO BERING STRAIT THU AFTERNOON. LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY WED DRIFTING NORTH TO WESTERN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES THU AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...995 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVING NORTH TO
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND 4AM WED...AND TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA 4PM
THU AT 1007 MB. WEATHER FRONT FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND TO KING SALMON
MOVING TO CAPE LISBURNE AND ALONG WESTERN BROOKS RANGE 4AM TUE.
SECOND WEATHER FRONT MOVING TO GAMBELL TO NUNIVAK ISLAND NOON TUE
AND TO LISBURNE TO UNALAKLEET 4AM WED. 1039 MB HIGH OVER ALASKA
CANADA BORDER DRIFTING EAST THROUGH WED. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
EARLY THU FROM EAST OF FORT YUKON TO NORTHWAY.

MODELS...AGREE OK IN SHORT TERM EXCEPT FOR UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH
OVER WESTERN CANADA...GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH DEEPER ON FEATURE
THAN NAM. ECMWF IS ALSO FASTER THAN GFS. IN MEDIUM TERM GFS HAS
GOTTEN IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF IN REGARD TO MAINTAINING A RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN AK AND AND UPPER LOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER AK DURING
THE WEEKEND.

NORTH SLOPE...SNOW AND SOMETIMES RAIN...OVER WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUE...ALSO HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. OTHERWISE DRY. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS IN WESTERN BROOKS RANGE PASSES AT LEAST INTO TUE.
TEMPS WARMING THROUGH WED.

WESTERN ALASKA...CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW FOR
NORTHERN 207 THIS EVENING AND FOR 208 THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
EVENTUALLY IT SHOULD TAPER OFF AND WARM UP SOME. ADDITIONAL 1 TO
4 INCHES EXPECTED...HIGHEST INLAND NORTH OF NOATAK. OTHERWISE SOME
PERIODS OF RAIN AND WET SNOW WITH WEATHER FRONTS MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WED FOR COASTAL ZONES...LOWER NOATAK VALLEY...AND LOWER
YUKON VALLEY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTERIOR ZONES...MOSTLY THE WESTERN HALVES DUE TO THE STRONG
RIDGING IN THE EAST.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...STRONG RIDGE BRINGING DRY AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
INTERIOR THU WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN....EAST OF FORT YUKON AND FAIRBANKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN
INTERIOR THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR FORT YUKON AND THE WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM TO TANANA AS BREAKUP ACTIVITY ON THE
YUKON PROGRESSES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JL MAY 13