Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 290315
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD COUNTY...AS
WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
PRODUCT OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DECREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER THAT. LATER TONIGHT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ALL THESE FEATURES
ARE HANDLED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST SUITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN TANDEM WITH A SFC COLD FRONT NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NWRN WYOMING AND NRN UTAH. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...AND QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE RACING SEWRD ACRS
WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DOWN ACRS N-CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SFC
FRONT. WRF...RAP...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW BNDRY
LAYER WINDS ON THE PLAINS TURNING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING. WHEREAS THE NAM DELAYS THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND ITS WIND SHIFT UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. MOST OF THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND HINTS OF A TRIPLE POINT JUST BEYOND
THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVELS SATURATING WITH WEAK
QG ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK SHORT-LIVED T-SHOWER OVER THE NERN CORNER.
OTHERWISE ONLY GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
RISING HUMIDITIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTN RANGES.

SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND STG/GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE STATE. SHOULD THEN SEE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDING EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY WITH STG MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10-15 DEG F
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. THAT/S STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK AS FLOW SHIFTS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
ACROSS PARK COUNTY WITH A BIT BETTER MOISTURE THERE.

AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS COLORADO SOMETIME IN THE
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTION SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LOW
POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH OR SO ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM AND 5 AM.
NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS OUT EARLIER TODAY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 PM.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS
FIRE WEATHER...DANKERS


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