Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 012127
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
327 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ONTO THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION. STORMS ARE ORGANIZING ON
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT THE FRONT SIDE...AND ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
ON THE BACK SIDE. LEADING CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHING INTO BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE
COOLER IN THE MOIST AIR...BUT CONVERGENCE FROM THE OUTFLOW SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK CAPPING. A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN
YESTERDAY IN THIS AREA...BUT ALSO LESS SHEAR. PROBABLY A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
MARGINAL.

MEANWHILE THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION LOOKS PRETTY WELL
ORGANIZED...THOUGH IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A COOLER/DRIER
ENVIRONMENT AS IT COMES OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO DENVER DURING RUSH
HOUR. MORE WIND IS THE MAIN THREAT...VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAKER BUT
IT IS AN ORGANIZED LINE. STILL SOME WEAKER CONVECTION FURTHER WEST
BUT I DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO SURVIVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WE
SHOULD HAVE CLEARING IN DENVER IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY IT SHOULD BE DRIER AT ALL LEVELS AND A LITTLE WARMER.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CAPPED DURING THE DAY...A SLIM CHANCE OF
GETTING STORMS GOING ON THE EASTERN BORDER BUT THE MAIN THREAT OF
THIS WILL BE IN THE EVENING. WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY WOULD MEAN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT THE GRASS IS GREEN EVERYWHERE WITH THE FIRE
DANGER RATED AS MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY...A COOL FRONT
WILL SLIP IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY IN THE MORNING AND SETTLE ALONG
THE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP BLO 700 MB IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD BE MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EAST INTO THE PLAINS
IN THE LATE AFTN/EVNG. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DRY. A
WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN TRIGGERING THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG. THE MDLS SHOW A MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENCE
REGARDING CAPE FM THE NAM12 TO THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS...ITS ALL
OR NOTHING. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRESENT BUT MAY BE FURTHER EAST
OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR THAN THE NAM12 SUGGESTS...BUT CANNOT RULE
THIS OUT COMPLETELY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SPATIAL
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING...SO AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE COULD
BE AROUND IN THE MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFF OF BAJA MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW
ALOFT FROM A COUPLE OF DECAYING TROPICAL STORMS. THE TROUGH ITSELF
WILL BE OFF THE SRN CA COAST BY 18Z FRIDAY...REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN SLIPS INLAND A BIT OVER
CENTRAL/SRN CA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO COLORADO.
THE THREAT OF STORMS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE AMPLIFIED
TOO. FOR NOW...WL KEEP HIGHER POPS EACH AFTN/EVNG...BUT WITH SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z...THEN SKIES WILL
CLEAR. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
FROM THE WEST...WITH THE STORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

INCREASED SNOWMELT WILL CAUSE THE POUDRE AND THE PLATTE IN THE
GREELEY AREA TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH WILL CAUSE RENEWED FLOODING IN THE MOST
VULNERABLE AREAS. OTHER RIVERS WILL BE HIGH AND COULD CAUSE SOME
MINOR IMPACTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO SOME DECREASE OF THE SNOWMELT...BUT ALSO AN INCREASED RISK
OF SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN LOOKS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IF
THERE ARE STORMS THE THREAT WOULD BE LOCALIZED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...GIMMESTAD


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