Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231421
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1021 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING OVERCAST SKIES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO START THE DAY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO TRY TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS BUT EXPECT STRATUS TO BURN OFF IN MOST
AREAS...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD
ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW PENNSYLVANIA TO
INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. EXPECTING IT TO STAY DRY FROM
NW OHIO ALONG THE LAKESHORE EAST TO ABOUT CLEVELAND WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE CAPPED.

PREV DISCUSSION... AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY MORNING DUE TO CALM WINDS AND HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. SOME CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM MI WILL
IMPACT MAINLY THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH MORNING...WHICH COULD
PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE PRECIP CHANCE. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DIFFICULT IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS. WITH THE MAIN FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS LOCALLY WILL BE ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS WE SEE MORE WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
MORE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN MOST AREAS...AND A WEAK SE FLOW WILL SUPPORT
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST WITH
MORE OF A CAP DEVELOPING (H700 10C). FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT OUT
RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IS A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS GIVEN ONGOING NW FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT WILL KEEP OUT
ALL POPS. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY APPROACHING 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION SUPPRESSED TUE
THEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME FOR WED TO ALLOW A BETTER THREAT FOR
TSRA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE
NORMAL TUE AND WED.

THE MODELS DIFFER FOR THU AND FRI ON THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU OR INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE  WITH THE FRONT. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS WILL KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POP GOING FOR
FRI ALONG WITH A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z. THERE WILL BE
TRANSITION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR FROM 14Z INTO MIDDAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING LIFTS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING THE MVFR CLOUDS. CIGS
SHOULD RISE ABOVE 3K FT BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

ENOUGH UPPER TROUGHING STILL EXISTS IN THE FAR EAST TO HELP A FEW
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY IS AT YNG BUT IT IS 20% OR LESS SO NOTHING WILL BE SHOWN
IN THE TAF. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
NE WINDS OFF OF LERI SHOULD HAVE A DAMPING EFFECT ON THE CU FIELD SO
ERI AND CLE SHOULD SEE SCT OR LESS CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO AGAIN
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MOST SITES WILL LIKELY SEE IFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG AND THEN NON VFR POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE THRU SUN SO EXPECT
AN E TO NE WIND OF 8 TO 15 KNOTS MOST OF THE TIME...TURNING MORE TO
THE SOUTH FOR MON THRU WED. WAVES SHOULD MOSTLY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET THRU
SUN THEN DECREASE TO 2 FEET OR LESS AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH BY
MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





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