Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 290827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
427 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

A weak cold front will move across the area on Sunday. High
pressure will then rebuild over the region on Monday and remain in
place through Wednesday. On Thursday, low pressure located over
the western Great Lakes will drift northeast into Canada and will
extend a cold front across the area.


A weak cold front will approach the region from the west on
Sunday. Ahead of the cold front, southerly winds from the
departing ridge of high pressure will allow for temperatures to
rise into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon with dew points well
into the 60s and a deep, moist airmass will be in place. This
airmass will be modestly unstable like the past few days and a
couple of showers and thunderstorms could pop up this afternoon
well ahead of the cold front with daytime heating. Then, as the
front approaches, expecting more coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the area but still nothing more than a mid-
range chance, as there are issues with the strength of the front and
extent of convection. However, unlike the past couple days, there
is a distinct forcing mechanism that is this cold front, so a
mid-range pop is justifiable.

SPC has outlined a good portion of northern Ohio in a marginal
risk for severe weather for Sunday. Forecast soundings across the
area show CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range for the late
afternoon and with a good, deep layer of moisture and an
approaching cold front for a lifting mechanism. There, thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon. However, the severe extent with these
storms does look limited, as there isn`t a ton of shear to
support any organized severe storms. But, forecast soundings do
show enough instability, marginally ok lapse rates, and DCAPE
values nearing the 1000 J/kg mark so a strong to severe storm
could happen. The main concern with any stronger storms would be
marginally severe hail and some damaging winds.


The weak cold front that will impact the region on Sunday will
move east out of the area and reach the Atlantic coast by Monday
afternoon. An upper level ridge will begin moving in from the west
and surface high pressure will begin to reestablish itself over
the central United States. This will leave the area nice and dry
for the holiday and the middle of the week. Temperatures will be
just a tad cooler behind the front, with highs reaching the 80
degree mark each day and lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Winds
will be mainly from the west on Monday before becoming more light
and variable on Tuesday and Wednesday.


The models have been consistent in bringing the next trough and cold
front on Thursday. Will go a little higher on the pop with "likely"
across most of the forecast area and chance toward the OH PA border.

Not as much confidence on how fast the front will clear the area.
The latest ECMWF is faster than the other models with the front
moving east of the area Thursday evening. Not going to take that bet
just yet given the relatively deep trough aloft progged over the
western Great Lakes. This could lead to the front slowing or a weak
wave on the front.

Will keep a slight chance/chance of a few showers on Friday given the
trough aloft. Some of the guidance keeps a chance for showers
through Saturday. Would rather not be that pessimistic given that the
surface high should build in with subsidence and drier air. There
are indications that another short wave will come quickly from the
west but will see if we can hold that off until Sunday.

Thursday should be the last warm day and there is some doubt to the
temperature forecast depending on how quick the clouds and
showers/storms will arrive. Temperatures should drop to normal
or slightly below normal after the cold front which will be cooler
than it has been for a while.


.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A few spots will have MVFR fog/haze early this morning otherwise
we will be VFR to start the day.

Once again facing a difficult TAF forecast for the afternoon given
the uncertainty about when and where showers and thunderstorms may
develop. There would seem to be a better chance for pop up showers
and thunderstorms from around Interstate 77 east including northwest
Pennsylvania this afternoon. Also, there will be a chance for
thunderstorms with an approaching cold front that should reach
northwest Ohio by late afternoon and northeast Ohio early tonight.
Given the low confidence and rather low probability at any given
spot...will forecast "vicinity" and "prob30" for the time being.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in SHRA/TSRA on Thursday.


Lake Erie should remain relatively quiet today although the south to
southwest flow will increase slightly ahead of an approaching cold
front. Some thunderstorms are possible along the front. not much
confidence on the amount of thunderstorms but mariners should be
aware for the chance for storms today into tonight.

High pressure will build across the lake later tonight and Monday.
the west flow on Monday will make for a little choppiness on the
east half of the lake but not enough to require a small craft
advisory. the winds will come around from the east and southeast by
Wednesday as the high pressure center moves east. The next cold front
is expected on Thursday.




NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Kosarik
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