Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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756
FXUS61 KCLE 141732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1232 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NEW YORK
STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY FRIDAY FORCING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME TODAY.

AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
WELL TODAY. SO...EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WHERE IT IS
ALREADY CLEAR. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ONE MORE DAY AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. WE SHOULD START TO SEE A RAPID WARMUP AFTER TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. I AM LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 20
MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE EAST IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR A WARMING TREND
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH...THE ZONAL FLOW DOES NOT PERSIST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
STARTS TO SHAPE UP DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORT BREAK WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT MUCH MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COLD
ARCTIC AIR IS SHUNTED EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM AGAIN TODAY.  THE PERIOD LOOKS
MILD AS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
HEADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE MODELS ARE IN A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT THE PRECIP TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY.  EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE STRATO CU IS GONE WITH ONLY FAR NE OH AND NW PA STILL
SEEING LOWER CIGS. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEEING SOME FOG IN A FEW OF THE OBS
BUT THIS IS LIKELY VERY SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND WILL SEE HIGH LEVEL
CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE SW. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO DIP TO MVFR SOON
AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL BECOME SE TODAY.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. NON VFR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...EASTERN SITES. NON VFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MOST OF THE WESTERN BASIN HAS FROZEN OVER AND WE SHOULD
BE MAKING MORE ICE THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE LESSENED.  THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING SPRAY IS NOW OVER AND WILL LET THE HEADLINE END.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS OCCURS.  ANOTHER WEAKER LOW
WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE FLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST.   HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ON THURSDAY CAUSING THE
FLOW TO AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA



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