Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 312313
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
613 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Tropical moisture plume persists over SW KS this afternoon, with a
very moist atmosphere for one more day. 12z DDC sounding measured
precipitable water near 1.7 inch, and this has not changed this
morning on mesoanalysis. Scattered thunderstorms will persist
through late afternoon, with locally torrential rain and localized
flooding again the primary concern. With a moist adiabatic
profile, the threat of wind/hail is very low. Temperatures again
running well below normal this afternoon under the thick cloud
cover.

Tonight...Shower and thunderstorm coverage will decrease markedly
after sunset, as limited instability is exhausted, and as drier
air works into SW KS from the NE. This drying trend will work in
from NE to SW, with any lingering showers restricted to near the
Oklahoma border sunrise Thursday. Residual surface and boundary
layer moisture will persist tonight, helped along by very moist
upslope E/NE surface winds. High confidence of widespread stratus
and fog redeveloping tonight, with low ceilings and areas of dense
fog expected. Fog impacts to the Thursday morning commute to work
and school are expected, and are expected to be maximized across
the central/southern zones. Drier air should keep visibilities
higher across the NE zones, but mentioned fog in the grids for all
zones tonight.

Thursday...Much drier air arrives in SW KS, circulating in around
a surface anticyclone in the upper Mississippi Valley. Given this,
the drier air will clear out the sky first across the NE zones,
and followed this trend in the sky grids. Any redeveloping
convection Thursday appears much weaker with much less coverage,
and confined to near the Oklahoma border. Even here, convective
prospects look limited, especially compared to recent days, so
purposely kept pop grids limited to isolated/slight chance (<25%)
Thursday afternoon. Despite the decrease in clouds and
precipitation by afternoon, the below normal temperatures will
continue. Little change noted in 850 mb temps, and with upslope
boundary layer flow, most locations will remain in the 70s once
again.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Much more typical late summer weather expected through the Labor
Day weekend.

Friday...Strong lee troughing commences, as upper ridge axis and
surface high move east of SW KS. Only a few degrees of warming, as
winds maintain an easterly component with recirculated continental
air. Temperatures still well below normal for early September.
Convective coverage will be much more limited than we have seen
recently, with convergence along the lee trough supplying the main
forcing for a late day storm. Most of us will remain dry, and kept
all pops isolated for all zones.

Saturday...Warming trend accelerates, as SW flow develops aloft,
in response to large western U.S. trough. Afternoon max temps
return to normal, to the mid to upper 80s. With south winds
supplying moisture and the persistent lee trough, an isolated late
day thunderstorm is plausible, but most of us will remain dry.

Sunday...Same pattern, and several degrees warmer, with highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s. Strong south winds gusting over
30 mph at times.

Early next week...Synoptic pattern across North America forecasted
by ECMWF to become stalled, as Hermine impacts the east coast, and
strong upper ridge builds over the SE U.S. Trough in the west will
have nowhere to go, with SW flow persisting over SW KS. Seasonably
hot Labor Day and Tuesday afternoons, with highs near 90, and
strong south winds. Isolated late day thunderstorms on the lee
trough/dryline each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be scattered across central and
southwest Kansas through the early part of this TAF period. Based
on current radar trends, will carry VCTS at Garden City this evening
but leave Dodge City and Hays dry through the period. Fog is expected
to develop again later tonight with IFR cigs and potential visibility
reductions to a quarter mile especially at Garden City and Dodge City.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  78  58  80 /  30  10  10  10
GCK  60  78  59  80 /  30  10  10  20
EHA  62  78  62  81 /  40  30  10  20
LBL  64  78  63  81 /  50  30  10  10
HYS  58  78  57  80 /  20  10  10  10
P28  64  82  60  83 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard



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