Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TONIGHT:

THE BREEZY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARDS DUSK IN THE 10 TO 18
MPH RANGE CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH ALL THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWEST/MODERATE WINDS.

TOMORROW:

A VORTMAX WILL SWING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS, QPF, AND SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE
ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MINOR EVENT. TOP DOWN APPROACH
GIVES A SMORGASBORD OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HAYS AREA WITH A HALF OF AN INCH FROM GARDEN CITY TO
DODGE CITY TO STAFFORD. LITTLE IF ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN COMPARED TO
MONDAY WITH VALUES CLIMBING LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30S LOOK REASONABLE
FOR RIGHT NOW.

FOR WINDS, GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGEST WITH THE WIND PROFILE. THE
NAM AND ARW CORES ARE WEAKER. THE STRONGEST MIXED LAYER WINDS LOOK TO
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE 6 FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND HAVE TRIMMED THE WATCH
AS SUCH. IT`S BORDERLINE WIND EVENT BUT AM NOT GOING TO UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING RIGHT NOW SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WIND
MAGNITUDES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MIDWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN IOWA. A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SOUTH OVER KANSAS DURING
THE DAY. THE MODELS SHOW THIS SECONDARY LOBE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MODELS SHOW A SWATH OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR
WITH THE AREAL PATTERN OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SHOW VERY LIGHT QPF
VALUES. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER AMOUNTS (NEARLY A
QUARTER INCH COMPARED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS GENERATED BY THE OTHER
MODELS) OF PRECIPITATION AND CONSEQUENTLY, MORE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE SPEED AND CONFIGURATION OF THE WAVE,
THINK THAT THE GFS IS OVERDONE. WHILE MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES DURING THE DAY, HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 183/281 CORRIDOR.

STRONG WINDS ARE STILL IN THE OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50 KNOTS. THE GFS MODEL
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LAYER WINDS, SHOWING SOME 50 KNOT VALUES
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
BEING MET, WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH GOING FOR NOW.

THE SENSIBLE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY, DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE LOW 60S IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COMES
OUT POSITIVELY TILTED AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM GO BY TO THE NORTH OF KANSAS WITH THE MAIN IMPACT TO BE
A COOLDOWN INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR KHYS TODAY, BUT NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY
FROM VFR. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KT TODAY INCREASING
25-40 KT TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  31  33  22 /  10  20  50  20
GCK  49  29  32  17 /  20  20  50  10
EHA  50  29  37  20 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  52  30  36  19 /  10  10  30  10
HYS  49  31  34  22 /  20  20  50  20
P28  53  32  38  25 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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