Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH
OF THE ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY AXIS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF ALAMOGORDO.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN DYNAMIC LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS
SHOWING DPVA OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE PERIOD TODAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA WILL GENERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH OVERALL CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL THUS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 50 F
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND .8 TO 1.1 INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY FROM 200 TO 800 J/KG THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SUSTAINING DYNAMIC LIFTING OVER MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH .75 TO 1
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES. MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY WITH 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT
6 KM AGL. THUS THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL EXIT ON
WEDNESDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES AND
BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMATION
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS FORECASTING POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. AT MOMENT BELIEVE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIR
MASS DRY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEASONABLY WARM DRY OUTLOOK LATER
PERIODS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME AT LEAST BREEZY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND
5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. THUS THE
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  56  73  55  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           70  50  70  50  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  51  71  52  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              73  51  71  52  73 /  60  40  30  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              55  36  55  38  55 /  60  50  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  52  71  52  71 /  50  20  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             67  47  66  48  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  73  51  72  52  74 /  50  20  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               74  52  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  56  72  56  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
DELL CITY               72  49  72  48  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            74  54  74  53  78 /  70  50  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              68  50  67  51  69 /  60  50  30  40  30
FABENS                  74  52  75  52  78 /  60  40  30  40  30
SANTA TERESA            73  53  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  54  71  55  72 /  60  40  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           72  47  71  47  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
HATCH                   73  49  71  49  72 /  60  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                73  53  72  54  75 /  50  20  30  30  20
OROGRANDE               73  52  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
MAYHILL                 62  42  60  43  63 /  60  50  40  40  40
MESCALERO               63  39  61  40  62 /  60  40  40  40  40
TIMBERON                62  39  60  41  62 /  60  50  40  40  40
WINSTON                 66  45  65  46  67 /  70  30  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               68  49  67  50  69 /  60  20  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               73  48  71  48  71 /  50  30  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            66  44  65  45  68 /  60  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  68  48  68  49  71 /  50  20  20  30  20
CLIFF                   72  46  73  46  75 /  40  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              70  42  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 68  49  67  50  70 /  60  20  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  75  51  76  51  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 74  50  72  49  76 /  40  20  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  49  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              75  49  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




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