Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262105
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
305 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE BORDERLAND THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING BACK WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHARP
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. LATE
NEXT NEXT WEEK A DRY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS AND BRING
WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIND AND DUST EVENT OF THE
SPRING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE CWA.
TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE BORDERLAND. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE BORDERLAND WILL SEE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND COULD RISE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE THE LOW COULD INITIATE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS. WENT WITH A MIX BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA AND THE
WESTERLIES TAKE OVER WITH ZONAL FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY A
SHALLOW FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TIGHTENING UP
THE LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND POSSIBLY CAUSING OUT FIRST MAJOR
WIND EVENT OF THE SPRING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z-28/00Z..
BACK DOOR CLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH FCST PD.
SFC WINDS TIL 03Z SE 5-10 K TS EXCEPT NE-SE 8 G 18KS WEST OF
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF I-10. SKC - FEW 150-250). AFT 03Z:
VRBL TO NW 6KTS SKC - FEW 150-250. AFT 18Z: WINDS SW 8KTS FEW150-250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AIR (ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY) PUSHED INTO THE
AREA BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S BACK DOOR FRONT. THIS AIR IS SHALLOW AND
WILL RETREAT BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH ON WEST SLOPES AND
PASSES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
RETURN TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE LATE MONDAY
TUESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MIN RH
FIELD WILL RUN FROM 17% TO 27% ACROSS ALL AREAS THURSDAY DRYING
ABOUT 5% TO 10% ALL LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG
ISSUES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  77  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           38  73  47  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              39  76  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  76  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              32  57  40  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  76  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             37  71  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  38  77  44  85  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               38  77  45  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  76  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               38  78  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            40  78  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              41  71  49  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  39  77  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            40  76  48  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  75  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           36  76  43  84  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   38  77  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  75  46  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               40  75  48  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 34  67  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               33  65  41  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                34  64  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 34  70  41  76  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               39  74  46  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               37  76  44  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  70  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  36  73  44  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   36  78  43  83  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              31  76  37  81  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 37  72  45  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  39  78  46  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 37  77  44  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  78  43  85  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              38  76  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/NOVLAN




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