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FXUS64 KEPZ 240334 AAA
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
834 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Made some quick updates to the overnight forecast to reflect lower
PoPs and increasing confidence in precip in the Gila Region after
midnight. Snowfall amounts still look on track for 1-2 inches
below 6,000 feet (including most of Silver City), and up to 2-4
inches above 7,500 feet (including NM-15 over the Pinos Altos
Range and Copperas Ridge, and Emory Pass).

Getting mixed signals on wind speeds, especially in downslope
areas overnight. SW wind direction favors far NE El Paso and
suggests KELP may be just out of the stronger winds, and may be
"hit or miss" with periods of gustiness and relatively light winds
(but with strong low level wind shear).

00z NAM soundings indicate mountaintop inversion doesn`t really
develop until 09z which is concurrent with the 850-700mb wind
maximum. Few spots could see gusts over 50 mph in the pre-dawn
hours in NE El Paso and perhaps WSMR HQ area.

Deep mixing tomorrow will allow for persistence of gusts in the
45-50 mph range.

Expanded Wind Advisory to the Sacramento Mountains given winds
aloft, and kept this going through tomorrow as well. Expect winds
late tonight will be isolated to exposed ridgelines, before
expanding to a broader area in the afternoon. We may flirt with
High Wind Warning criteria for a time in the Sacramentos tomorrow
afternoon, but since it often seems like these events under-
perform, decided to leave that to the Mid shift to decide if they
want to upgrade for the later periods.

Advisory level winds look likely over the Otero Mesa and most of
Hudspeth County (except in the immediate vicinity of the Rio
Grande) as well. This puts us more in line with surrounding
WFO warnings and advisories as well.

Refreshed ZFP and NPW already sent, and grids should be on their
way to NDFD and the web farm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 45  56  33  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           40  54  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              38  50  27  47 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo              40  51  27  47 /  20  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              24  28  14  31 /  50  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences   34  47  25  45 /  20  10   0   0
Silver City             29  36  21  37 /  90  30   0   0
Deming                  38  49  25  47 /  20  10   0   0
Lordsburg               36  47  24  46 /  60   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      44  53  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               42  55  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            42  59  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              40  48  30  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  44  55  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            41  52  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          42  52  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           37  50  22  46 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                   38  50  27  46 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                40  51  28  49 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande               41  52  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 32  38  22  39 /  30  20   0   0
Mescalero               31  37  21  36 /  40  30   0   0
Timberon                32  37  22  36 /  30  20   0   0
Winston                 28  38  18  38 /  60  20   0   0
Hillsboro               33  44  22  42 /  40  20   0   0
Spaceport               34  48  22  45 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            25  35  10  37 /  90  30   0   0
Hurley                  32  40  22  40 /  70  30   0   0
Cliff                   32  45  17  43 /  90  30   0   0
Mule Creek              29  39  16  42 /  80  30   0   0
Faywood                 33  43  22  42 /  60  20   0   0
Animas                  37  49  26  48 /  50   0   0   0
Hachita                 38  48  25  47 /  20   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          38  50  25  49 /  20   0   0   0
Cloverdale              37  44  26  43 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM MST Tuesday for
     NMZ413>416.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ417.

TX...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM MST Tuesday for
     TXZ419.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for TXZ420>422.

&&

$$

25-Hardiman



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