Area Forecast Discussion
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170
FXUS64 KEPZ 212209
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
309 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper high persisting over the Baja Peninsula through Friday and
then drifting east over Mexico over the weekend. This will result
in a continued stretch of dry and mostly warm weather. A cool
front moving in tonight will keep Wednesday`s temperatures near
normal, but then warm back up well above normal through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Continued dry and mostly warm weather through the forecast period.
Upper high just offshore of the Baja continues to dominate the
pattern, with moderate north flow and considerable high level
moisture continuing over the CWA through Friday. Back door cool
front nearing the CWA from the east will push through overnight
and cool temps 5-8 degrees Wednesday. Put some west slope wind
gusts in overnight as models show 25-30 mph gust potential. Did
also include some low clouds for the Sac Mtns overnight as models
show increase in dew points and low level RH.


Upper high slowly begins moving east Saturday and Sunday as next
large Pacific trough moves toward the west coast. By Sunday
afternoon, ridge axis shifts east of the CWA. Temperatures back
well above normal from Thursday through the weekend.

Monday and Tuesday...flow turns southwest as upper trough
approaches. Still dry both days with temperatures continuing
above normal

Wednesday...GFS and ECMWF differing some on solution with GFS
closing off low from the trough near the four corners and drifting
south over the Arizona/New Mexico border. ECMWF latest run has
closed the gap some with the GFS, closing low off over far
southern Colorado and then moving it east. GFS solution would
suggest chance of precip Wednesday with much cooler temps. ECMWF
on the other hand would suggest remaining dry with just some
cooling back to near seasonable levels. Will have to watch this
feature next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z...
VFR thru the period with P6SM SCT-BKN250. Winds generally E to SE at
10-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Aside from high level cloudiness the region will remain dry and
warmer than normal through the forecast period. A weak front moving
through the region will bring slightly cooler temps for Wednesday
with readings returning to 10 degrees or more above normal for
Thanksgiving and the upcoming weekend. Min RH values will generally
be in the upper teens and 20`s until the weekend when western zones
could drop below 15%. Vent rates will generally be poor as a ridge
of high pressure settles over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 44  67  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           41  65  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              41  66  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              39  62  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              29  54  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   37  67  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             39  62  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  38  68  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               41  68  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      44  67  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               35  65  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            41  69  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              40  63  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  38  69  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            42  66  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          42  65  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           33  65  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   36  66  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                41  68  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               42  65  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 31  60  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               32  59  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                33  57  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 30  66  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               34  67  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               32  66  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            33  68  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   30  67  30  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              31  68  29  72 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 39  65  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  39  68  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 38  69  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          39  69  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              42  68  37  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Laney



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