Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211030
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
430 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will have another sunny warm day on Thursday, but moisture and
rain chances return for locations east of the Rio Grande for
Friday and Saturday. A few storms both days could produce winds
and hail. Sunday and Monday will be dry and cooler, then for
Tuesday and Wednesday we will see rain chances return to the
forecast with slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We will be on a moisture yo-yo for the next several days,
especially for locations east of the Rio Grande. Currently an
upper level trough was settling into the western U.S. and this
feature will be sticking around through most of the forecast
period. Out ahead of the trough the southwest flow is drawing in
dry air across the area. So, like yesterday, we will see very warm
and sunny conditions again today. Then on Friday as the trough
inches a little closer, the system is able to tap into some
moisture and draw it northward for locations, mainly east of the
Rio Grande. The GFS is more bullish for thunderstorms on Friday,
while the ECMWF is more bullish on thunderstorms for Saturday.
Both days will have some decent directional and speed wind shear
so any storms that do develop could produce some strong winds and
good size hail. But again it looks like the best chances for
strong thunderstorms will be east of the Rio Grande.

For Sunday and Monday as a short wave trough works through the
long wave trough to our west, it will help sweep in some drier
air from west. This drier air will push our moisture and rain
chances to the east of the area, for at least a couple of days.
But by Tuesday a back door cold front looks to move into the area.
The front will help drop our high temperatures a few degrees
below average on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will also swing
some moisture from the east back into the area. Again the GFS is
more aggressive than the ECMWF on rainfall totals, but both models
do show some decent moisture returning to the area, while at the
same time the long wave trough to our west, ever so slowly inches
toward the east. For now I have gone with some isolated to
scattered pops across the entire area, with the higher pops east
of the Rio Grande where the deeper moisture will be more abundant.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/12Z-22/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours as dry southwest
flow continues across the area. Like yesterday we could see a few
clouds in the afternoon, FEW080, but ceilings should stay
unlimited through the evening hours. Also like yesterday our
surface winds may be breezy for a few hours in the afternoon,
24012G20KT, but the winds should settle down by early evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy, warm and dry today as southwest winds aloft continue to
bring dry air into the region. Winds this afternoon will be
breezy for a few hours, but should stay below critical levels. Min
RH`s today will be in the 20`s in the lowlands and in the 30`s in
the mountains. For Friday and Saturday, it will continue to be dry
out west, but we will see a chance for thunderstorms east of the
Rio Grande. Min RH`s Friday and Saturday will be in the 20`s west
of the river and in the 30`s and 40`s east of the river. We will
see drier air work into the area on Sunday and Monday with min
RH`s in the teens for most lowland locations. Then moisture
returns as a back door cold front cools our temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. We will see a chance for rain both days
with min RH`s jumping into the 30`s and 40`s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 94  70  92  69 /   0   0  20  30
Sierra Blanca           91  67  89  65 /   0   0  30  40
Las Cruces              91  63  88  62 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              92  63  89  65 /   0   0  20  30
Cloudcroft              68  47  68  49 /   0   0  30  40
Truth or Consequences   89  64  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             82  55  78  53 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                  91  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               89  59  85  58 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      93  70  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
Dell City               94  65  92  66 /   0   0  30  40
Fort Hancock            95  69  93  69 /   0   0  30  40
Loma Linda              88  66  87  65 /   0   0  30  30
Fabens                  94  70  92  69 /   0   0  30  30
Santa Teresa            92  68  90  67 /   0   0  10  20
White Sands HQ          92  65  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
Jornada Range           92  63  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                   92  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                93  61  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               92  67  90  67 /   0   0  20  30
Mayhill                 79  54  77  55 /   0   0  30  40
Mescalero               78  53  77  54 /   0   0  30  40
Timberon                77  52  76  54 /   0   0  30  30
Winston                 81  48  78  49 /   0   0  10  10
Hillsboro               87  57  84  57 /   0   0  10   0
Spaceport               89  63  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            79  47  76  48 /   0   0  10  10
Hurley                  84  53  80  53 /   0   0  10   0
Cliff                   86  50  82  53 /   0   0  10  10
Mule Creek              84  54  77  54 /   0   0  10  20
Faywood                 85  55  82  55 /   0   0  10   0
Animas                  91  57  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 91  56  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          91  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              85  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice



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