Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232110
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
310 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad upper troughing will develop and persist across the Western
U.S. through the work week ahead. As upper waves past, gradients
will tighten and low pressure systems will form to our east. All
of this will make for a week of strong winds, seasonal warmth,
blowing dust, and high wildfire danger. Temperatures will cool,
with more clouds, and possible rain as a stronger Pacific storm
system drops into the Borderland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Secondary cool surg from the east overnight has begun to ease off
this afternoon as sfc high pressure to the east weakens and
quickly moves away east. Surface winds have slackened and are
turning more southerly. This trend will continue overnight as the
ridge aloft will slip off to the east to be replaced by quasi-
zonal flow aloft which will quickly evolve into mean broad
troughing across the entire western U.S.

Winds will quickly turn westerly/southwesterly and stay that way
for the week. In response to the "troughy" upper-level pattern,
the surface will develop daily lee troughing just east of the
Rockies. Upper-level pressure gradients will tighten with winds
aloft in the 40-50kt+ range. Low level gradients will also
tighten and align with upper-level winds. Each afternoon will
become windy with strong west winds as we see daily momentum mix
down to around 12kft.

Lower wind days will be MON and WED, but even those days look
breezy to low-end windy (15-25 G 30+ mph). Windier days, with
speeds of 30mph+, look likely for both TUE and THU with the
passage of an upper disturbance both days. and THU. FRI looks to
be the windiest day of the week as the strongest of this train of
Pacific storm systems drops in. Wind advisories may be necessary
for TUE and THU. A high wind warning may be needed for FRI. Of
concern will be periods of blowing dust leading to dangerous
travel conditions most afternoons...in particular MON far
west...TUE, THU, FRI all lowland areas.

Friday`s storm approach brings two slugs of increased moisture and
dynamics. Thus we see the return of precipitation chances for area
mountains on FRI eve, and rest of the region Saturday, lingering
through Saturday night. The GFS brings the upper low south of the
Four Corners while the ECMWF tracks it directly over the 4Corners
and ejects it quickly, while the GFS digs it deeper and keeps it
over the area. The quicker/shallower EC is the more likely
scenario given the season. This is a drier and warmer solution
while the GFS drops temps 10C between FRI and SAT after Pac front
pushes through early SAT. If the upper storm does linger into SAT
night/SUN morning there will be enough cooling aloft to get snow
levels down to about 8500 ft over the Gila. However snow totals
will be generally light.

The FRI/SAT storm system will be gone or exiting SUN. This will be
the transition day with moisture pulling out, winds easing up,
and cool air staying in one more day. MON and beyond we see a
sharp pattern shift as high pressure builds over the SW U.S. More
Pac systems cut through, but the storm track will be pushed north
and away from the region keeping us warm and dry with lighter
winds.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z... P6SM SKC-FEW250 through the
period with winds FM 140-160 around 10-15 KTS east of a TCS-DMN line
through 08Z.  Winds shift 220-250 at 5-10 kts through Monday
morning.  Aft 16Z winds increase FM 230-250 15-30 kts with gusts to
40 kts at ELP and near east slopes of other north-south oriented
mountain ranges.  An airport weather warning at ELP for high winds
may be needed Monday afternoon.


22-Tripoli

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE GILA REGION...

Gusty west-southwest winds are expected starting Monday through the
workweek...as an active weather pattern returns to the region and
western states. This will feature a developing upper level trough
over the region for the first part of next week...with a deeper
trough aloft over our area expected late in the week and into next
weekend.  Mix down of strengthened winds aloft from the associated
pacific jet stream...and persistent surface low pressure over the
western high plains will lead to gusty 20 ft sustained wind speeds
20-30 mph each day.  Gusts to 40 mph or higher are likely in favored
locations.  Chances for wetting rain should return late in the week
and over the weekend.

Min RH Monday-Wednesday will range from the single digits low
lands...to teens over highest elevations.  Values climb roughly 10-
20 percent Thu and Fri to range from the teens lowlands...to middle
30s high country.  Mixing heights Monday will range from 8000-9000
ft in the Gila region...to 11000-12000 in the lowlands.  Values fall
1000-2000 ft Tuesday all areas...with the lowlands rebounding to
9500-11000 ft on Wednesday.

22-Tripoli

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 61  90  66  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           57  88  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              51  88  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              55  88  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              42  65  44  61 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   54  87  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             49  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  49  87  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               49  86  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      61  89  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               50  91  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            57  93  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              58  84  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  58  91  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            56  89  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          59  88  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           48  87  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   48  90  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                56  89  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               58  89  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 45  76  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               45  75  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                43  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 41  79  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               47  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               47  88  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            34  78  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  45  80  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   42  86  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              47  81  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 48  82  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  50  89  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 49  87  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          51  87  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              51  82  52  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

14/22



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