Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231036
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
436 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon moisture and instability will continue throughout the week
ahead, but will be at it`s strongest today, with heavy rain and
local flooding possible again. For the rest of the week, moisture
and flood potential will decrease ever so slightly, but scattered
thunderstorms will continue through the week. Local flooding could
still occur with a few thunderstorms. Temperatures for the most
part will remain cooler than normal due to the clouds and showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monsoon in full force over the next week to 10 days. In fact if
you toggle between model 00 hr and 240 hr there is very little
change in high/low positions affecting the CWA. Still expect today
to be the most active of the period, as PWs remain around 1.2 to
1.5 inches and dewpoint in the lower 60s. Upper high has reformed
over northern Arizona and southern Utah. This, combined with
remains of sheared out MCS over far southern Arizona were bringing
a north/northeast flow aloft to the CWA, which will turn a bit
more to the east today as the upper high begins it`s migration
eastward. Very little affect on moisture so still expect areas of
heavy rain and local flooding today. Model QPFs not focused much
on common areas today (other than the mountains) so will keep POPs
fairly uniform. Will let Flash Flood Watch expire.

By Monday and Tuesday, the upper high reaches eastern New Mexico
and the Texas Panhandle where it will reside through Wednesday. I
do expect a bit of a downturn in activity as the high will provide
weak capping and moisture decreases some (PWs 1.1-1.3 inches,
dewpoints down into the 50s). Still scattered coverage and some
potential for few areas of flooding.

For Thursday and Friday...upper high, you guessed it, begins
moving back to it`s home base over the Great Basin. GFS continues
to show a weak upper wave moving south around the high and down to
the CWA. What had initially been a Friday feature now looks like
more of a Thursday night feature. So could be a brief ramp up
Thursday night/Friday for thunderstorm coverage and flood
potential.

Saturday and Sunday...thinking slight downtick again behind the
possible upper wave, but now GFS shows some hint of a backdoor
front/impulse to move in. For now went with the downtick in the
grids but may have to upgrade if models show some consistency.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected with P6SM SCT050 BKN-
OVC100-120 through the period. Sfc winds gnly SE_SWZ 5-12
kts. Deep moisture will remain in place resulting in scattered
thunderstorms, with higher coverage in the mountain areas. Local
IFR briefly in TSRA/+TSRA CIGS AOB 030 VSBYS 1-3SM. Wind gusts of
25-40 kts possible near some of the storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very moist and unstable airmass will persist today across the
fire zones leading to widespread thunderstorms and some flooding.
Moisture will decrease some Monday through Wednesday with
slightly less thunderstorm coverage, along with flood potential,
as upper high moves back over eastern New Mexico. This will bring
slightly warmer daytime temperatures. Min RH values for today will
run around 35% to 45% lowlands and 50% to 50% mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 89  70  91  72 /  30  50  20  30
Sierra Blanca           87  66  89  69 /  40  40  10  20
Las Cruces              88  65  90  68 /  40  50  20  30
Alamogordo              89  66  90  68 /  40  50  20  30
Cloudcroft              67  50  69  52 /  50  60  50  30
Truth or Consequences   89  66  90  68 /  40  50  30  40
Silver City             81  62  83  62 /  60  70  70  50
Deming                  88  66  90  68 /  40  60  20  40
Lordsburg               85  66  88  67 /  50  70  60  50
West El Paso Metro      88  70  90  71 /  30  50  20  30
Dell City               91  68  92  70 /  50  40  20  20
Fort Hancock            90  72  92  73 /  40  50  20  20
Loma Linda              84  65  85  67 /  30  50  20  30
Fabens                  90  70  91  72 /  40  50  20  30
Santa Teresa            88  67  90  70 /  30  50  20  30
White Sands HQ          88  67  90  70 /  30  50  20  30
Jornada Range           89  65  90  68 /  40  60  20  30
Hatch                   91  66  92  68 /  40  50  20  30
Columbus                88  67  90  69 /  40  60  20  40
Orogrande               89  67  91  71 /  40  40  20  30
Mayhill                 75  53  76  57 /  50  50  60  30
Mescalero               77  54  76  57 /  50  60  50  30
Timberon                75  54  75  57 /  50  60  50  30
Winston                 83  57  80  61 /  60  70  70  50
Hillsboro               87  64  87  65 /  60  70  50  40
Spaceport               89  64  90  67 /  30  60  20  30
Lake Roberts            84  56  79  57 /  60  70  70  50
Hurley                  82  62  84  62 /  60  70  60  50
Cliff                   86  58  84  61 /  50  70  60  50
Mule Creek              86  59  84  62 /  60  70  60  40
Faywood                 86  62  85  63 /  60  70  50  50
Animas                  84  65  88  67 /  50  70  50  50
Hachita                 86  65  88  67 /  50  70  40  50
Antelope Wells          86  63  87  66 /  50  70  40  40
Cloverdale              83  62  82  63 /  50  70  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.

TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



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