Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 050845
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
245 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TO FUEL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN FREQUENCY TO A MORE
ISOLATED LOWLAND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN PATTERN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. STORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BY MID DAY AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE LOWLANDS BY THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES...NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO
POND UP IN POOR DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BECOME LESS FREQUENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND A WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH MORE MOVEMENT...MAY NOT BE ABLE TO DUMP AS
MUCH HEAVY RAIN ON ANY ONE LOCATION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH PART WAY INTO THE AREA BUT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY AS MUCH AS IT WILL EAST
OF THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. ON
A LARGER SCALE...THE MOISTURE WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN A LARGE LOW
ON THE WEST COAST AND THE HIGH OVER THE GULF STATES. CIRCULATION
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL TIGHTEN THE MOISTURE INTO A
CONCENTRATED PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT WILL STRADDLE THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEGINNING NEXT
SATURDAY...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE PLUME. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. LONG RANGE
FORECASTS WILL TREND DRIER WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
NEXT WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/12Z-06/12Z...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
AGAIN TODAY. HEAVIER RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO IFR. LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES. EXPECT P6SM SCT100 BKN150-200 WITH AREAS OF -SHRA
MAINLY WEST OF KLRU. AFT 18Z WITH SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN050CB AREA
WIDE. SE WINDS SHIFTING TO SW THROUGH 12Z AOB 12KTS EXCEPT VRB
AND GUSTY NEAR TSMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
THAT IS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS SCENARIO WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MOISTURE AND RIDGE REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXHIBITING RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT. EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WHERE STORMS FORM ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING. MIN RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 40 TO 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL
HELP TO REPLENISH MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AS A RESULT A DAILY CHANCE
FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 94  75  96  74 /  50  50  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           91  69  92  69 /  50  50  20  40
LAS CRUCES              91  71  94  70 /  40  50  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              91  70  93  69 /  50  50  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              69  55  71  54 /  60  60  50  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  70  92  69 /  40  50  30  30
SILVER CITY             80  64  83  64 /  60  40  50  30
DEMING                  91  70  93  70 /  40  40  20  30
LORDSBURG               89  68  91  68 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      94  75  96  74 /  40  50  20  40
DELL CITY               93  71  95  68 /  50  50  20  40
FORT HANCOCK            93  73  95  72 /  50  60  20  40
LOMA LINDA              88  69  91  68 /  50  50  20  40
FABENS                  94  72  96  72 /  50  60  20  40
SANTA TERESA            93  73  94  72 /  40  50  20  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          91  71  94  70 /  40  50  20  40
JORNADA RANGE           91  69  94  69 /  40  50  20  30
HATCH                   92  69  94  69 /  40  50  20  30
COLUMBUS                90  70  92  70 /  40  40  20  30
OROGRANDE               91  72  94  71 /  40  50  20  40
MAYHILL                 79  59  81  57 /  60  50  40  50
MESCALERO               80  58  82  57 /  50  50  40  50
TIMBERON                79  57  81  57 /  60  60  40  50
WINSTON                 81  62  84  61 /  60  50  50  40
HILLSBORO               88  66  91  65 /  50  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               91  69  93  68 /  40  50  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            80  60  83  60 /  70  50  60  40
HURLEY                  84  65  86  65 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   88  64  90  65 /  50  40  50  30
MULE CREEK              86  64  88  63 /  50  40  50  30
FAYWOOD                 85  66  87  66 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  88  67  91  67 /  50  40  30  30
HACHITA                 90  67  92  68 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  65  89  66 /  60  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              82  65  86  65 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN


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