Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 250859
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
259 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
East to southeast winds will push moist unstable air into southern
New Mexico and west Texas into next week. As a result there will
be continued chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
Borderland under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will
remain near or a little below normal each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Over the next seven days larger scale surface pattern will be
dominated by broad area of low pressure covering the Great basin
and southern Rocky Mountain region and large area of high pressure
to the east. Consequently low level winds will be mostly east to
southeast across southern New Mexico and west Texas with transport
of moisture pushing dewpoints back above 50 F most locations by
Friday and around 55 to 60 F over the weekend. Precipitable
water will thus rise above an inch. The increase in moisture will
destabilize air mass with mucapes around 400 to 800 J/kg today
rising to around 600 to 1200 J/kg by Saturday afternoon.

Meanwhile in the middle and upper troposphere weak poorly defined
short wave/impulses may possibly move west to east across the cwa
through Saturday with models suggesting an inverted trough
drifting westward through northern Mexico early next week.
Overall pattern thus favors a gradual increase in convection over
the next several days with risk for heavier rains returning this
weekend. Upper ridge building over the southern Rockies may bring
drier weather by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 25/12z-26/12z.
Mostly vfr conditions with sct-BKN-100. Isolated areas of mvfr
ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms mainly from
20z to 06z. Surface winds generally from 5 to 15 kt except for
gusts to 40 kt near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
East to southeast winds will push moist unstable air into southern
New Mexico and west Texas into next week. As a result there will
be continued chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
Borderland under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Locally heavy
rains possible Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain
near or a little below normal each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 92  68  90  68 /  20  20  20  30
Sierra Blanca           88  65  87  65 /  40  30  40  30
Las Cruces              90  62  86  63 /  20  20  20  30
Alamogordo              92  60  89  63 /  20  20  20  30
Cloudcroft              68  46  66  49 /  60  40  40  40
Truth or Consequences   89  61  85  62 /  20  20  20  30
Silver City             84  56  80  57 /  40  40  40  30
Deming                  91  64  88  64 /  20  20  20  30
Lordsburg               93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  30
West El Paso Metro      92  69  89  69 /  20  20  20  30
Dell City               89  63  88  64 /  50  40  40  30
Fort Hancock            91  68  91  68 /  30  30  30  30
Loma Linda              84  62  82  62 /  20  20  30  30
Fabens                  92  66  90  66 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Teresa            91  67  88  67 /  20  20  20  30
White Sands HQ          90  66  86  65 /  20  20  20  30
Jornada Range           90  60  86  61 /  20  20  20  30
Hatch                   90  63  86  64 /  20  20  20  30
Columbus                92  65  89  65 /  20  20  20  30
Orogrande               90  63  87  64 /  20  20  20  30
Mayhill                 74  48  71  53 /  60  40  40  40
Mescalero               79  50  76  53 /  60  40  40  40
Timberon                76  48  72  51 /  60  40  40  40
Winston                 81  50  78  52 /  40  40  20  40
Hillsboro               87  56  83  58 /  40  40  20  40
Spaceport               89  61  85  62 /  20  20  20  30
Lake Roberts            84  51  81  53 /  40  40  40  30
Hurley                  86  56  82  58 /  30  30  30  30
Cliff                   91  56  88  59 /  40  40  30  30
Mule Creek              87  52  84  55 /  30  20  30  30
Faywood                 90  58  86  58 /  30  30  30  30
Animas                  92  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  30
Hachita                 93  62  90  63 /  20  30  30  30
Antelope Wells          90  61  87  63 /  40  30  30  30
Cloverdale              84  59  80  60 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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