Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 282144
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
344 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We will continue to have just enough moisture for isolated
thunderstorms, mainly west of the Rio Grande tonight through
Thursday. We see a slight chance for thunderstorms everywhere on
Friday as a weak upper level storm system moves across the area.
Then for Saturday through Wednesday we will see warm and
occasionally breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We will be seeing the feeble remains of this year`s monsoon
season the next couple of days. It was slow to get going, but
when it did this year`s monsoon season gave us lots of rain. But
now we will see the final southerly moisture flow give way to the
westerly winds on Saturday. Currently a weak southerly flow is
bringing a minimal amount of moisture up into the area. The
moisture flow is getting a little help from a the remnants of
Tropical Storm Roslyn. It looks like the deeper moisture will stay
just to our west in Arizona, but I can`t rule out that we will see
a few thunderstorms in our area tonight. On Thursday the moisture
plume will stradle the AZ/NM border so we will again see a chance
for thunderstorms, mainly west of the Rio Grande. On Thursday we
will see some decent directional shear as we will have southeast
winds at the surface and southwest winds aloft. With the limited
moisture on Thursday we won`t see many thunderstorms, but those
that do develop may be on the strong side of things. On Friday a
large upper level trough will begin to push into northern
California and that will help increase our westerly winds. This
increased winds will begin to push the weak moisture plume from
the west to the east, so on Friday we will see a slight chance for
thunderstorms everywhere. Again, like Thursday we will see some
decent directional shear so a few storms may be strong to severe.

On Saturday the westerly will fully kick in and that will pretty
much be it for the monsoon season (right on time). The weekend
looks warm and dry with the westerly flow. The aformentioned
large trough will move across Utah and Colorado during the first
of the week. As usualy during the Spring time, it will be to far
north to give us any rain chances, but it will help give us a some
breezy to windy conditions. For the middle of next week the GFS
tries to move a weak cold front across the region, but the ECMWF
says the front won`t make it. So it does look like we will
continue to see warm temps through the middle of next week. All
and all a very nice start to the month of October.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/00Z-30/00Z... P6SM SCT-BKN060-080 BKN150-200
through much of the period. Sct 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 possible west
of divide and isolated east of divide. E to SE winds AOB 12kts
through 12Z then increasing to 10-20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast low level winds and southerly flow aloft will keep
moisture over the region for the next few days. Best precipitation
chances will remain west of the divide but isolated storms are
possible to the east. Relative humidities will remain above 30
percent through Friday, but start to drop into the teens again by
the weekend as a deep westerly flow develops.  Breezy winds will be
developing early next week as an upper trough moves across the
Rockies with temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s for the
lowlands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 65  81  60  79 /  10  20  20  20
Sierra Blanca           60  76  55  74 /  10   0   0  30
Las Cruces              61  80  57  77 /  10  20  20  20
Alamogordo              59  80  54  79 /  20  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              43  61  39  62 /  20  20  20  30
Truth or Consequences   60  78  55  77 /  20  20  20  20
Silver City             58  71  51  71 /  30  50  50  20
Deming                  60  80  55  78 /  30  30  30  20
Lordsburg               59  79  53  78 /  30  40  50  20
West El Paso Metro      65  81  60  79 /  10  20  20  20
Dell City               59  79  53  78 /  10  10  10  30
Fort Hancock            63  80  59  79 /  20  10  10  30
Loma Linda              62  74  55  72 /  10  20  20  30
Fabens                  62  81  57  79 /  10  20  20  20
Santa Teresa            63  81  58  78 /  10  20  20  20
White Sands HQ          61  79  56  78 /  10  20  20  20
Jornada Range           57  80  54  78 /  10  20  20  20
Hatch                   60  79  56  78 /  20  20  20  20
Columbus                62  80  57  78 /  20  30  30  20
Orogrande               62  80  58  78 /  10  20  20  20
Mayhill                 49  64  45  68 /  20  20  20  30
Mescalero               49  68  45  70 /  10  20  20  30
Timberon                49  65  45  67 /  20  20  20  30
Winston                 50  71  46  71 /  30  50  50  20
Hillsboro               56  77  51  74 /  30  40  40  20
Spaceport               59  78  54  77 /  20  20  20  20
Lake Roberts            52  73  48  73 /  30  50  50  20
Hurley                  57  73  50  73 /  30  40  50  20
Cliff                   48  78  47  76 /  30  50  50  20
Mule Creek              46  75  44  74 /  30  60  60  20
Faywood                 57  77  52  75 /  30  40  50  20
Animas                  57  81  53  79 /  30  40  50  20
Hachita                 57  80  52  79 /  30  40  50  20
Antelope Wells          58  78  53  77 /  30  40  50  20
Cloverdale              59  76  53  74 /  20  40  50  20

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz



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