Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302117
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
316 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY UPPER FLOW OVER THE BORDERLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS OVER
TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN. A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THEN TO THE REST OF THE BORDERLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...
OTHER THAN MAYBE LESS QPF FOR THE WET PERIOD COMING UP. CURRENT
PICTURE SHOWS OLD REMNANTS OF MARIE WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA OVER TO THE SONORAN
DESERT OF MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DRY WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OLD MARIE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WITH THE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...TO ABOUT 5-7 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY REFORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...OVER THE SONORAN AND CHIHUAHUAN DESERTS BY MONDAY AND THEN
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHUT OFF THE
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND BY WEDNESDAY BEGIN ALLOWING A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN TRANSPORTING MOIST TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD.
GFS TREND OVER LAST SEVERAL RUNS IS TO PUSH MOST OF THE MOISTURE A
BIT FURTHER WEST WITH LESS CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EAST. LATEST ECMWF
STILL SHOWING WIDER SPREAD RAIN...THOUGH OF LOW QPFS. WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH OF ANY CHANGES TO GRID POPS WED THROUGH FRI. FOR NOW PATTERN
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SERIOUS THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOODING. BY SUNDAY AND BEYOND...WITH HIGH STRENGTHENING OVER
TEXAS...MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE FORCED MOSTLY INTO ARIZONA AND FAR
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. EXPECT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN LIMITED TO WEST OF
DEMING AFTER SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z - 01/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS. 00Z-03Z SLIGHT RISK TCU/CB/TSTM OVR HIR TERRAIN GILA
WILDERNESS AND SACRAMENTOS OTHERWISE SCT080-120 SCT250. WINDS GNLY
NE-SE 5 TO 10KTS BUT BCMG AFT 18Z SW 10G20KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED AFTN AND EARLY EVNG CLD BLDUPS AND MAY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS
TODAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
WARM WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT A MINOR DISTURBANCE
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY BREEZY RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY THE WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE
BACK AND SOMEWHAT BOOST THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEDNESDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  96  65  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  95  66  93  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  74  50  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  95  65  93  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             62  89  63  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  97  63  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               64  95  64  94  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  97  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  97  67  96  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            71  97  70  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  90  70  91  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  69  96  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            70  96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  94  66  93  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  95  63  92  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  96  65  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                68  94  65  93  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  95  67  94  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  82  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               55  83  56  83  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  83  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 56  84  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               60  89  66  89  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               65  94  66  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  87  58  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  62  91  64  91  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   51  93  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              49  90  51  90  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  89  64  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  67  93  66  92  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 65  95  65  94  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  93  67  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              64  90  67  91  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.