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FXUS64 KEPZ 240034
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
534 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Reworked the PM forecast package to remove the wind advisories
from of all but the favored east slope and high mountain zones
east of the Rio Grande. The Pacific system has been slow to
approach leaving the gradients a bit more relaxed than throught
and the upper-level belt of strongest winds still upstream. With
sunset rapidly approaching the breezy and gusty winds should
quickly drop in speeds for all but those areas lee of the sky
islands and higher terrain. Also trimmed the timing for those
zones still in the Advisory with a new end time of 6 am local.

TAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018/

SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to windy conditions will prevail overnight as a storm
system pushes a cold front through the region. Cooler temps will
be in place for the weekend with warmer winds again developing by
Monday. Another storm system will create windy conditions Tuesday
and Wednesday along with a chance for some light precipitation.
This will be followed by mild and quieter conditions to wrap up
the week.

DISCUSSION...
Satellite and water vapor loops continue to depict a fairly sharp
trough dropping into northwestern Arizona this afternoon. Model
progs agree on an 80+ knot 500mb wind max swinging around the
base of the trough and pulling it eastward over New Mexico
overnight tonight. This timing is not ideal for maximum winds.
None the less, we will still see breezy to windy conditions across
the area overnight and into early Saturday. Wind speeds will
struggle to reach advisory criteria across western lowland zones
this afternoon. However a few sots could see winds between 30 and
35 mph as mixing intensifies a bit more prior to sunset.

Meanwhile models are indicating a wide swath of 50 knot winds at
700 mb crossing the region tonight with the actual trough
passage. Higher elevation winds over the Sacramento mountains and
along favored east slope areas look to support the wind advisory
that is in place for areas along and east of the Rio Grande
tonight and early Saturday.

Wind speeds will diminish by midday Saturday as colder air filters
in behind a Pacific cold front that will sweep past prior to
sunrise. Temps should be as much a 10 degrees below normal
Saturday with only minor improvements Sunday as a secondary
trough passes by just to our north. However winds should quickly
turn back around to the southwest by Monday afternoon ushering in
milder temps. This will be in response to another strong trough
digging down along the west coast. Depending on the timing of this
trough we could be in for a very windy go of things Tuesday into
Wednesday. We may also see some light precip breaking out from
west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday. PW values look to be
meager between a quarter to third of an inch, but could still
result in a few showers across the region. Snow levels will dip
with the passing trough as well with some light snow down to
between 5500` and 6000` elevation early Wednesday. But
accumulation will be rather light.

In the wake of this system brief ridging should allow for another
nice warm up with lowland temps possibly back around 70 degrees
by the end of the week.

AVIATION...24/00Z-25/00Z...
SKC-FEW250 through period.  West to northwest winds of 10-15g25kts
will be common through 25/00Z but some locations, especially KELP
could experience west winds of 20-25g35kts between 08Z-15Z.
Patchy blowing dust possible at KDMN and KLRU through early
evening.

FIRE WEATHER...
Strong upper trough will move through the region overnight and bring
a cold front across Borderland. Winds will generally be 15 to 25 mph
but stronger winds are possible during the evening and into mid
morning tomorrow, especially eastern mountain slopes. A few light
snow showers are possible in the northern Gila region overnight.
Temperatures tomorrow will be about 7 to 12 degrees cooler than
today. Relative humidities will be in the teens through the weekend
so there could be some localized critical fire conditions
experienced late this afternoon and Saturday. Temperatures will
begin a warming trend Sunday and continue into Tuesday before
another front moves through Tuesday night. Critical conditions are
possible Tuesday ahead of this front.  Some mountain snow showers
and lowland rain showers are possible Tuesday night as well with the
only other precip chances in the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 42  56  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           36  53  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              36  56  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              41  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              19  41  21  41 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   34  54  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             26  47  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  34  53  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               27  51  24  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      42  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               35  59  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            39  58  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              34  51  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  34  57  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            38  55  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          41  56  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           31  55  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   33  57  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                36  55  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               42  56  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 26  47  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               25  46  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                21  45  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 19  49  20  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               28  54  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               30  55  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            15  49  18  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  22  48  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   17  52  20  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              25  46  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 28  52  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  29  53  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 30  53  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          31  58  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              32  51  28  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MST Saturday for NMZ413-415-416.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MST Saturday for TXZ419.

&&

$$

14-Bird


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