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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252102
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
202 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY AND BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN CAUSE SEASONABLY WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A DEEP SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO CAUSE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE UPPER LOW NOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A POSITION OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BU MONDAY EVENING. CONCURRENTLY NARROW
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. CONSEQUENTLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL FLOW
INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY CAUSING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO RISE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TO AROUND .7 TO .9 BY MONDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AXIS/WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPWARD FORCING. THUS EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY AFTER5NOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS WHERE FORCING DYNAMICS AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL
BE STRONGEST. AIR MASS WILL BE RATHER WARM BOTH AT LOW LEVELS AND
ALOFT SO SNOW THREAT IS MINIMAL EVEN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL GREATLY WEAKEN
AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE RESULTING IN A MORE
ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL TRANSPORT SEASONABLY
WARM DRY AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WITH MOSTLY
DRY SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VERY COMPLEX SITUATION COMMENCES ON THURSDAY. FIRST AN UPPER LOW
WILL BECOME LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WHILE AN INITIALLY
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE EAST. COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WHILE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT UPLIFT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER DETERMINISTIC MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
GENERAL SIMILARITIES IN DEEPENING UPPER LOW WHILE DROPPING IT VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BAJA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE CENTER WILL GENERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER FLOW THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS WHILE A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE
EAST. THUS EXPECT THE MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL BE UPLIFTED OVER
THE COOLER AIR COVERING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RESULTANT UPLIFT
GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS THE
ECMWF HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTING AN
INCREASING SNOW THREAT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATER PERIODS WHILE
WARMER GFS INDICATES MAINLY LOWLAND RAINS WITH MOST SNOWS CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE SUPER BLEND SEEMS A LITTLE MORE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS IN KEEPING MOST SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN
EITHER CASE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN
FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM .7 TO .9 INCH
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z...
VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT100-150 SCT-BKN200-250 AND SFC WINDS
MAINLY NE GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. BY MONDAY NIGHT ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AROUND THE LOW AND PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO MID DAY
TUESDAY. ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE ANY SNOW.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAJA WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN
SPREADING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL AND THEN BEGIN COOLING DOWN BACK BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WET SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO
5000 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 33  63  43  65  41 /   0   0  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           31  62  41  63  40 /   0   0  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              30  62  41  63  38 /   0   0  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              30  64  39  62  37 /   0   0  20   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              20  50  33  52  30 /   0   0  20  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   29  61  40  62  37 /   0  10  30   0   0
SILVER CITY             29  60  40  61  37 /   0  20  40  10   0
DEMING                  30  61  40  62  36 /   0  20  40   0   0
LORDSBURG               31  62  40  63  37 /   0  20  50   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      33  63  42  64  43 /   0   0  20   0   0
DELL CITY               28  65  38  66  35 /   0   0  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            33  64  42  68  41 /   0   0  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  63  41  64  42 /   0   0  20   0   0
FABENS                  31  63  42  65  40 /   0   0  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            30  62  41  64  38 /   0   0  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          32  63  40  63  40 /   0   0  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  62  39  62  34 /   0   0  20   0   0
HATCH                   28  63  39  64  36 /   0  10  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                31  60  40  62  38 /   0  20  40   0   0
OROGRANDE               30  64  40  63  39 /   0   0  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 25  59  39  61  36 /   0   0  20  10   0
MESCALERO               22  56  35  57  32 /   0   0  20  10   0
TIMBERON                26  56  39  58  37 /   0   0  20  10   0
WINSTON                 25  59  37  61  35 /   0  20  50  10   0
HILLSBORO               29  62  41  64  39 /   0  20  30   0   0
SPACEPORT               27  63  39  62  36 /   0   0  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            26  61  39  61  33 /   0  20  50  20   0
HURLEY                  28  61  39  62  35 /   0  20  40  10   0
CLIFF                   19  63  39  62  33 /   0  20  50  10   0
MULE CREEK              17  62  35  61  30 /   0  20  50  20   0
FAYWOOD                 30  63  40  63  39 /   0  20  40  10   0
ANIMAS                  30  63  40  65  35 /   0  30  50   0   0
HACHITA                 28  61  40  63  35 /   0  20  50   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          29  61  40  64  34 /   0  30  50   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  59  40  66  37 /   0  30  50   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN




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