Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GOOD...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THE RELATIVELY QUIET AND OVERALL DRY...LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SCT HIGH
BASED CU WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH GUSTINESS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS APPEAR TO BE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ONTARIO REMAINS JUST NE OF LOTW. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE EVENING IN CASE A STRAY CELL MOVES
THROUGH. TONIGHT CLEAR AGAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW LYING GROUND
FOG IN THE AM...THOUGH HAVE BEEN DRY AND WINDY OF LATE WITH NONE
THIS PAST MORNING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE GRIDS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND INDUCES SFC WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. THIS WAVE AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING TSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND
INTO THE EVENING FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IN W CENTRAL MN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE SECOND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND INTO NW MN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WRAPS A VORT
MAX AND BRINGS IT SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND
COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 20C TO 10C BY MONDAY...GIVING 70S FOR
HIGHS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...REGION WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
TOO QUICK CONSIDERING THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING WEST UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER



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