Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280550
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE OTHER
EXTENDED FROM MT TO SOUTHEAST MN. PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA. MORE SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. RADAR ESTIMATED ONLY ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...LESS TO THE NORTH.
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

WARM ADVECTION PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
MAJORITY OF THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER SD AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ZONES WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO LOW
LEVEL JET WAS OVER EASTERN SD AND WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MN. RADAR
SHOWING TRAILING EDGE OF PRECIP. HOWEVER SECOND BAND WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN SASK AND SOUTHWEST MAN AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ADJUST POPS TO CURRENT RADAR
TREND. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE FASTER THAN FORECAST.
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

RADAR INDICATED BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND AND WAS
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ABOUT 35 KNOTS. RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVIER SNOW
OVER PARTS OF NELSON...GRIGGS AND BARNES COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
ADVISORY AS IS. GENERALLY TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS
WERE STARTING TO RISE AND SO TWEAKED LOW TEMP UPWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW COMING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WHAT TO DO WITH
HEADLINES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SFC OBS SHOW THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CWA. NOT VERY FAR WEST THOUGH...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS HAS HELPED SOME GOOD
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. TEMPS IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES ARE IN
THE 30S AND 40S...AND WHILE READINGS HAVE REMAINED BELOW FREEZING
IN WESTERN ND...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT TO BRING
FREEZING RAIN TO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE CWA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS HAVE ALL
BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SNOW BAND THAT DEVELOPS...NOW
MORE FROM DEVILS LAKE DOWN TOWARDS THE FARGO AREA RATHER THAN
FURTHER NORTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MESO MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. FOR NOW WILL JUST EXTEND THE
ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEP THE NORTHERN BORDER AS IT IS
RATHER THAN CANCEL AND HAVE THE BAND BE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SHOW. THERE IS SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND A LITTLE BIT
OF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE...BUT NOT A HUGE AMOUNT. THINK THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY MARGINAL...AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES...BUT GIVEN
THE HEAVY TRAVEL DAY WILL KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
REACH BACK INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE
FIRST ROUND OF SNOW FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING...AND THERE
SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE MAIN SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE BEST PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...SO WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN OUR NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL
HEAD QUICKLY OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AGAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT VERY MUCH IS EXPECTED SO
CONTINUED WITH MINIMAL POPS AND QPF. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. KEPT IT JUST BREEZY FOR NOW BUT MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING
SPEEDS. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND
SHOULD BE PRETTY MILD AT LEAST EARLY ON...BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT
COMING IN SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO IN SPOTS AND
SUNDAYS HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND AN NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
CONSISTING OF A SW RIDGE OVER SASK THAT WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUT SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT
OF SFC HIGH. EITHER WAY...NEXT WEEK WILL START WITH DRY WEATHER
AND A BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER.
THE PLACEMENT OF THAT HIGH IN RELATION TO CALMEST WINDS DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT JUST HOW COLD WE
GET. RETURN FLOW SETS UP MON NIGHT...AND WE COULD SEE STEADY TO
RISING TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPS REBOUND AND CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 BY LATE TUE AFTN. SOME LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY. GFS/EMCWF THEN SHOW DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS HAVING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAN SHOWN IN THE ECMWF. BY WED NIGHT THE GFS
KICKS A SFC LOW OUT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IS ABOUT 180 DEG OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ECMWF (SHOWING A SW
RIDGE MOVING INTO WRN DAKOTAS). THEREFORE SUPERBLEND LOW POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BUT VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON SNOW POTENTIAL FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ARE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN. MVFR CONDITIONS EXTENDS NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SURROUNDING IFR AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.
IFR AND MVFR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-039-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-
     008-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




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