Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 310837
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
337 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Main concern is heavy rainfall potential today and tonight as the
surface cold front drops southeast across the area. MCS/line of
convection is on schedule, and should continue to move/propagate
slowly east-southeast toward the turnpike corridor through 12z. How
far south and east this line gets and the resultant outflow and
potential MCV will be one key on focus/impetus for additional
convection later in the day. The effective cold front is likely to
lag and be situated across central Kansas by early afternoon and
will become another focus for convection. While there may be a
decrease in coverage later this morning, it is quite possible that
convection could linger in some fashion much of the day, gradually
going upscale again with limited diurnal heating and moderate
instability. Weak to modest deep layer shear/westerly flow aloft
may support a few strong or marginally severe storms, though the
main risk will be locally heavy rainfall and potential for renewed
flooding today and tonight. While a general north to south demise
in POPS is expected behind the front on Wednesday, there is some
suggestion in the short term models that convection could linger a
bit longer near the Oklahoma border into Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, the going dry and seasonably warm forecast looks
reasonable into Thursday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

While the general regime looks dry next weekend, there is a
relatively small chance for precip with a secondary cold front
Friday night into Saturday across north central and far eastern
Kansas. Otherwise, Kansas will be situated in mean northerly
component flow aloft as an upper trof develops across the
Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A line of showers/storms will move eastward across the region
overnight, with more showers and storms lingering across the area
for Tuesday. Low clouds around 4000ft will be common across much
of the region on Tuesday, however some CIGs could drop below
4000ft in the vicinity of a thunderstorm.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    79  62  79  58 /  70  70  40  10
Hutchinson      77  58  78  54 /  60  60  20  10
Newton          77  59  77  56 /  60  60  20  10
ElDorado        78  60  78  57 /  70  70  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   80  61  79  58 /  70  70  60  20
Russell         75  54  77  52 /  40  30  10  10
Great Bend      75  55  77  52 /  50  40  10  10
Salina          77  58  79  55 /  60  50  10  10
McPherson       76  58  78  54 /  60  60  10  10
Coffeyville     81  63  78  61 /  60  70  60  20
Chanute         81  62  79  58 /  60  70  50  10
Iola            80  62  79  58 /  70  70  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    81  62  78  60 /  60  70  60  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ



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