Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 031746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS WAVE WILL PASS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS...AND MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
DIURNAL STRONG INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR CHANNEL...IS PROGGED BY
SHORT RANGE MODELS TO TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WHERE A
FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE-STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A 35-40 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE STORM COVERAGE SOME...WITH
CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT
TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. PREVAILING WINDS (OUTSIDE OF
STORM-INDUCED OUTFLOWS)...IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH
SATURDAY EVENING.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
OUR WARM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO FEATURE BROAD...SOMEWHAT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GULF
STATES...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE
00Z/3RD GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS WHERE RICH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE CONSENSUS PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH THIS FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH...GIVEN
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WARM SIDE...MAKING STORM
COVERAGE MORE QUESTIONABLE. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS...BEFORE RETURNING SOMETIME
MID-LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CIGS ARE DRAWING THE GREATEST THIS AFTN AS THERE ARE AREAS THAT
ARE IN MVFR COUNTRY (~2,500FT) PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS. THE DECKS
ARE BKN & SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT SCOURING IS OCCURING. AS
SUCH...CIGS WL BE WATCHED CLOSELY. BY ~04/00Z THE STRATOCU WILL
HAVE SCOURED FROM ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH KCNU MAY SEE BKN DECKS
~8,000FT THIS EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  66  90  71 /  20  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      87  64  90  71 /  10  10  20  40
NEWTON          85  64  88  70 /  20  10  20  40
ELDORADO        86  64  87  70 /  20  10  10  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  89  70 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELL         87  65  90  71 /  10  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      87  66  90  70 /  10  10  30  40
SALINA          85  64  89  70 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       86  64  89  71 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     85  65  87  69 /  40  20  10  30
CHANUTE         83  64  87  68 /  40  20  10  20
IOLA            83  64  86  69 /  40  20  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    84  64  87  69 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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