Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 110444
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

TONIGHT-SAT:
MAIN CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON MAXES THROUGH
SAT. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES AS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSOLATION
GOES TO EVAPORATION. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER SHOULD GET A BOOST A BIT
FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON SAT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE REDUCED
THE THREAT OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ON FRI/SAT.

SAT NIGHT-SUN:
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WOBBLE AS TO WHEN/WHERE FRONT
WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT EITHER WAY...SMALL CHANCES
JUSTIFIED FOR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE SAT WITH CHANCES
EXPANDING SOUTH ON SUN. BOTH GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
KEEPING MOST POPS NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE SUN NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AS SURFACE MOVES
SOUTH OF BORDER. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES APPEAR LIKELY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY GOOD EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400. BY TUES...
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH 1020 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST WAS LIMITED BY CONSENSUS...BUT APPEARS HIGHS MAY ONLY BE
IN THE MID 70S BY WED AND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST ON
THU. NIXED PRECIPITATION BEYOND MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WELL
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AND HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT TIMING OF RETURN
MOISTURE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER...FEEL THAT WEAK MID AND
UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. LEE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL KS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  94  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      72  95  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          71  93  74  94 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        71  93  73  95 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  94  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         73  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      73  95  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          72  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       72  96  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  93  71  99 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         71  93  72  97 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            71  93  72  96 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  93  71  98 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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