Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 241917
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
217 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Rainfall from this past weekend is having an obvious impact on
temperatures and convection across much of the CWA this afternoon.
Temperatures are only in the upper 80s to lower 90s and thus
convection is struggling outside of the orographically enhanced
area of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. The HRRR is adamant
however that widely scattered showers will develop later in the
Permian Basin so will keep the low chance PoPs going for this
aft/eve.

An upper high will build into the area causing temps to climb
back above normal over the next several days. Most models showing
500mb heights near 594 dam indicate a weak cap and a chance for
isolated convection. The GFS however is showing heights near 596
dam, increasing subsidence and better inhibiting storm development
so confidence is not high enough to put rain in the forecast at
this time for later in the week. The high center will reposition
back to the west over the weekend opening up West Texas and
southeastern New Mexico to northerly mid and upper level flow.
This pattern will push a cold front into the South Plains and
models in good agreement it will move into the Permian Basin with
the biggest questions being its strength and timing. Fronts this
time of year typically move slowly but convection developing along
the front will affect its speed which is very hard to forecast
more than a couple of days out. For now will hold off bringing
in any cold air advection until Monday, which is just after this
forecast period.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  97  75  97 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       71  97  72  99 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                         74  96  75 100 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  72  95  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  83  68  91 /  30  30  10  20
Hobbs                          69  95  69  93 /  30  10   0  10
Marfa                          64  87  64  90 /  20  30   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  74  98 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  96  74  97 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           73  98  73 100 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/10



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