Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 280542
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will move through the area tonight/Sunday morning,
expected to affect HOB around 08Z and progress to FST by 13Z. MVFR
ceilings look to fill in behind the front for several hours Sunday
morning, though improvement to VFR is expected by Sunday
afternoon, with the exception of FST where MVFR ceilings may
persist through much of the forecast period. Winds will shift to
the north behind the front, with gusts to 25-35kt common through
midday Sunday. Thereafter, winds will gradually decrease, with
northeast winds around 12kt or less expected areawide by 29/00Z.
While a few storms could affect FST later tonight, and again
Sunday afternoon/evening, have not included mention at this time
due to low probability/uncertainty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Significant changes will occur during the next 24 hours, especially
concerning temperatures Sunday and beyond, and precipitation chances
next week.  Westerly flow aloft is prevailing over the region this
afternoon, which will aid high temperatures topping out 5 to 10
degrees above normal.  The flow aloft and hot temperatures are also
fostering fire weather concerns, so please see the Fire Weather
Discussion below for further details.  Despite some mid level
moisture traversing the region associated with a weak shortwave
trough, dry surface air has pushed eastward into west central Texas
this afternoon, which will preclude thunderstorm development over
most of the area.  The exception may be over the Lower Trans Pecos
where low level moisture could get hung up, and provide a focus for
a few storms this afternoon/evening.  In addition, a few models
attempt to develop showers and storms along a retreating dryline
tonight, but will only carry a slight chance over the southeastern
third of the forecast area since there does not appear to be any mid
level support for development.

An upper trough currently extending from the north central U.S.
Plains, southwestward into the central Rockies, will translate
eastward tonight/Sunday and send a cold front south through the
region in it`s wake.  We could see showers and thunderstorms develop
along and behind the front tonight/Sunday, especially over the Big
Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos.  A strong/severe storm or two
could occur, both late this afternoon/evening and tonight/Sunday.
Temperatures on Sunday will be 10 to 15 degrees lower than today as
the front pushes south across the Rio Grande by early afternoon.
Northerly winds could approach/eclipse wind advisory level over
portions of the plains, but the duration/strength does not appear to
be there so will not issue a Wind Advisory.  Northeast gap winds
through Guadalupe Pass could rise to 35-50 mph sustained for a few
hours, so will issue a High Wind Warning there from 28/10Z to
28/18Z.

Weak westerly flow aloft undercutting an upper ridge over the
western CONUS will result in a couple of weak shortwave troughs
traversing the area Monday and Tuesday.  Thereafter, a negatively
tilted upper trough will form over the west coast, with the
southernmost extent of this feature extending over southeastern New
Mexico and west Texas Tuesday through the end of next week.  This
setup, along with persistent easterly, upslope low level flow will
provide a chance of rain over most of the forecast area, but
especially wednesday through Friday.  Some models cutoff an upper
low over the region next Friday, which would portend even better
rain chances than will be included in the forecast at this time. All
the upslope flow, cloud cover and rain chances will contribute to
high temperatures staying at or below normal through the week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Gusty westerly winds will be across the area this afternoon into
early this evening. Winds will be 20 mph or more across the
Guadalupe Mountains, parts of Culberson County, and the southeast
New Mexico plains. Low relative humidity values will be present
across most of the CWA this afternoon with many places experiencing
RH values in the single digits. Temperatures will be around 10
degrees above normal today. These conditions will allow for critical
fire weather conditions across the Guadalupe Mountains, parts of
Culberson County, and the southeast New Mexico plains. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for this area this afternoon into the evening.
Conditions will improve tomorrow with a cold front moving into the
area tonight/Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  85  63  84 /  20  10  10  30
Carlsbad                       61  86  62  84 /  10  20  30  40
Dryden                         68  80  66  83 /  50  60  30  50
Fort Stockton                  63  82  63  83 /  30  40  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 59  79  58  77 /  20  20  40  30
Hobbs                          57  83  58  81 /  10  10  20  40
Marfa                          58  80  56  80 /  30  60  40  60
Midland Intl Airport           62  86  63  84 /  20  20  20  40
Odessa                         62  86  63  83 /  20  20  20  40
Wink                           62  87  63  85 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to noon MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$


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