Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 232301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show 2 lines of convection out west moving thru SW
flow aloft, w/more to come overnight. Although there are slight
disagreements in timing and placement among the models, the main
push looks to come thru 02-08Z. Forecast soundings suggest MVFR
cigs developing KMAF/KHOB overnight, but other terminals could
stay VFR except in direct convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

..Several rounds of heavy rain expected to produce flash flooding
beginning later today...

A busy week ahead as a heavy rain event is shaping up for the
majority of the region. A deep upper trough has set up to our west
allowing copious amounts of moisture to stream across the area at
all levels. Southwesterly flow aloft will bring in mid and upper
level moisture off the Pacific while a strong southeast wind at the
surface along with a LLJ will keep rich Gulf moisture in place.
Showers and storms are ongoing across Eddy Co south to near Presidio
already this afternoon. This convection will only expand as it slowly
moves east. The upper flow will likely cause storms to train over
the same locations into the overnight hours. This could lead to
flash flooding, especially in flood prone regions like Dark
Canyon, Rocky Arroyo and urban areas. Will expand the current
watch south to the Rio Grande and east to the western Permian
Basin based on hi-res models showing more extensive convection
tonight. By Sunday, the axis of rain, some heavy, will transition
east into the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Beyond Sunday, forecast confidence in heavy rain is high, but timing
it will be hard. As is usually the case, timing the best chance of
rain will depend on where previous convection set up and
individual disturbances moving across the region within the flow
aloft. Based on the current forecast model suite part of the upper
trough to our west will lift into the Plains Monday. This will
tend to drag the axis of heaviest precipitation from the Permian
Basin south to the Big Bend Monday into Tuesday. At the same time,
a strong cold front will move south into the region on Tuesday
possibly helping to focus heavy rain along the boundary. Not only
could we see more training thunderstorms, but PWAT`s will continue
to increase and any rain we get today and Sunday will act to
saturate the ground. Another Flash Flood Watch will likely be
needed in the coming days.

By late Tuesday, a shortwave will help deepen the upper trough once
again over the Four Corners. This will only enhance southwesterly
flow aloft across our area into the end of next week. A good chance
for showers and storms will continue into at least Friday. Another
thing you will notice will be the much cooler temperatures. We could
see highs only reach the 60`s for a couple of days next week with
low dropping back into the 50`s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  83  68  80 /  30  50  60  70
Carlsbad                       64  83  63  82 / 100  20  30  50
Dryden                         72  84  70  82 /  40  50  60  70
Fort Stockton                  69  83  67  82 /  70  60  50  60
Guadalupe Pass                 61  78  60  77 /  80  10  30  40
Hobbs                          64  79  63  77 / 100  50  40  60
Marfa                          61  80  60  78 /  70  50  40  60
Midland Intl Airport           70  82  67  80 /  50  50  60  70
Odessa                         69  82  67  80 /  60  50  60  70
Wink                           69  85  67  83 /  80  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Andrews-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

44/10/44



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