Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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126
FXUS64 KOUN 280535
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION... /For the 06z TAFs/
Thunderstorms may impact PNC shortly, but thunderstorms have moved
east of all other TAF sites. A period of MVFR ceilings may be
possible later tonight through early in the morning, especially at
central Oklahoma TAF sites. Otherwise gusty north winds tonight
should subside during the morning and generally be less than 12
knots by later in the afternoon through evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The May 28-29, 2017 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

AVIATION...
Generally expect VFR conditions to continue at most terminals
through the TAF period. A cold front continues to shift southward
this evening and has already passed through KGAG/KWWR/KPNC/KCSM.
The cold front will pass through all terminals tonight. As the
cold front shifts southward, thunderstorms could impact KOKC and
KOUN this evening. Any thunderstorms could be strong to severe
with gusty, erratic winds, large hail, and temporary ceiling
restrictions. Gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front,
especially late this evening and overnight.

There could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the cold
front. Currently, greatest confidence for lowered ceilings is
across central Oklahoma (KOKC/KOUN) where TEMPOs were included
after midnight.

Northerly winds are expected to continue through the end of the
TAF period.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Complex weather scenario for this evening and tonight. Looking at
as many of the models as possible today, they all have a bit of a
different opinion on how things will play out.

It appears that most likely of these scenarios will be; we will
see some isolated convection develop, initially in our area near
or just ahead of dryline across south central Oklahoma in the 5 to
6 pm time frame. These storms will develop in an environment that
will be very unstable and will likely produce very large hail,
damaging winds and torrential rainfall. Also, a tornado risk will
exist, if a storm can either develop in an area of backed/stronger
surface winds, or with the extreme instability that exists, can
locally enhance the low level helicity/shear.

Elsewhere, storms may then try to develop south and west along an
advancing cold front from Missouri southwest along the I-44
corridor. Many of the models have difficulty in developing storms
as far west as central Oklahoma in the early evening hours.
However, by late evening, the models do develop storms along the
cold front across southern Oklahoma.

This would produce multiple rounds of heavy across parts of
southern Oklahoma, where they received heavy rain late last week.
Because of this possibility, will likely issue flood watch for
portions of south central and southeast Oklahoma overnight.

Some lingering activity will be possible Sunday morning across
southeast Oklahoma, but should clear the area soon enough to
result in a pleasant day Sunday and this will continue on Memorial
day Monday.

Throughout much of the upcoming week we see weak waves make their
way through the southern Plains, which bring/continue rain
chances across the area. Some risk of severe may exist from day to
day, but expect it to remain on the lower/marginal category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  57  85  60 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  83  59  87  59 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           79  53  84  58 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     80  56  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         81  61  85  60 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ032-040>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

12/25



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