Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 110606
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
106 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold
front crosses toward midweek bringing another arctic blast and
ushering in a more unsettled pattern through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1250 AM Sunday...

Warm front gradually drifting northward through the northern CWA.
Radar echos beginning to show up with this...however no obs
showing any precip just yet with dry low levels. Atmosphere should
gradually moisten up and expect some light snow to begin falling.
Have a very tight POP gradient clipping extreme northern CWA based
on HRRR and WRFNMM. All models in good agreement keeping the bulk
of the activity north of the forecast area. With that said, do
have some likely POPs in extreme northern Perry and Morgan
counties with about an inch of snow accumulation during the pre-
dawn.

With the warm front north, have non-diurnal temperatures coded up
for the remainder of this morning as WAA kicks in. This will also
allow a nice warm up today for most. One exception will be the
eastern slopes where southeast flow cold air damming will keep
things on the cool side.

As a low pressure system moves through the western Great Lakes
tonight, a cold front will begin moving through from west to east.
Have an area of 80+ POPs along and ahead of the front for tonight.
Some concern that the eastern slopes could still be near freezing
when the precip starts early Monday morning -- will need to
monitor this for freezing rain potential. Have a few hundredths of
ice accretion, mainly in Pocahontas County. Will add this to the
HWO. For the rest of the forecast area, generally looking at
around 0.4"-0.5" of rain tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

Forecast soundings show low level thermal profiles favoring brief
ZR possible in mountain valleys early Monday morning. While a
light glaze of ice is possible, the changeover to rain should
occur relatively quickly. Temperatures will remain cool but
relatively mild compared to the previous several days and rain
should end west-to-east late Monday into Tuesday with sfc high
pressure building back in.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

Confidence remains low concerning overall pattern evolution for the
long term. Regardless of spatial and temporal discontinuities in
model guidance, it does appear that another arctic airmass will
filter in by mid week. Multiple rounds of precipitation are also
possible through the period with any waves embedded in the larger
scale flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

Warm front setting up north of the forecast area, with VFR
conditions expected at all TAF sites. Could get some MVFR to IFR
in snow across extreme northwestern tip of CWA.

VFR expected into tonight, with clouds on the increase. A surface
low moves through the western Great Lakes tonight, bringing
overnight rain. Expect IFR with this...although mainly after the
end of the current TAF period.

Winds will gradually turn from southeast to southwest through the
TAF period. Have some LLWS in the TAFs where calm surface winds
in the inversion are under a decent south to southwesterly flow
just off the surface.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium SE OH/N WV. High elsewhere.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes tonight may vary.
LLWS may end sooner than later if inversion breaks down.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 12/11/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in rain and stratus late tonight into Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/DTC
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...DTC
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...MZ



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