Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV










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