Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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116
FXUS61 KRLX 251830
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
130 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning colder for the rest of this weekend. Warmer with upper
level disturbances and rain showers next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

Cold front will continue to move east and out of the area late
this afternoon. Rain showers will exit as well. Much colder air
is on tap for tonight and tomorrow with temperatures dipping
into the 20s over much of the area...with some teens in the
colder valleys of the northern mountains. H500 trof will swing
through tonight. This will keep the chance for snow showers or
flurries with brisk WNW winds in the forecast for upslope areas
of our eastern mountains overnight tonight. High pressure
quickly builds over the area tomorrow bringing plenty of
sunshine, but much cooler temperatures.




&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

A tranquil period under Canadian high pressure brings plenty of
sunshine and near normal temperatures to end the weekend. Look
for highs in the 40s sunday and lows in the 30s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 AM Saturday...

A zonal flow pattern aloft prevails through mid week. Within
this zonal flow, there will be a northern stream along the
Canadian border which will keep the cold air bottled up in
Canada. Our weather into Thursday will be dominated by a
southern stream flow of upper disturbances lifting out of the
southwestern U.S. and across the Ohio valley and Mid Atlantic
states. Models agree with this pattern, although there are some
timing and identification differences in the individual
disturbances. Thus, we take a broad brush approach with on and
off rain showers Monday through Wednesday. We will be in the
warm sector with a good southerly flow, bringing temps to well
above normal through Wednesday. Have left thunder out for now
given all the clouds and showers, limiting instability.

Finally, the upper flow amplifies by Thursday and drives a cold
front across the area with more rain showers. Behind the front,
look for a cool down for the end of work week with temps
getting back to near normal by Friday. There maybe some post
frontal showers Friday, with snow showers mainly in the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 pM Saturday...

Cold front over the eastern mountains of WV will continue to
move eastward and exit the region this afternoon. Showers
associated with it will exit as well. Upper level trof will
swing through tonight. This will keep mainly MVFR cigs over
northern portions of the area from a line from PKB to EKN and
areas North. VFR cigs south. Winds the rest of this afternoon
will continue out of the WNW between 10-15kts gusting to 25kts
the rest of this afternoon and into this evening. Brief MVFR/IFR
vsbys in snow showers are possible over the Northern WV
mountains overnight.

High pressure builds in across the region early Sunday morning
from W to E. VFR cigs and diminishing winds will be the norm
during the day on Sunday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE
SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR Cigs and Vsbys may vary
overnight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    L    M    M    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MPK
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JS



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