Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 301031
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
631 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold fronts cross today and Wednesday. High pressure Thursday.
A low brings a front into the area Saturday, and then another
low rides along that front Monday, hence an unsettled weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Forecast on track, as showers out in Kentucky continue to fall
apart.

As of 350 AM Tuesday...

Showers over the lower Ohio valley, ahead of an approaching cold
front, were not holding together as some models suggested
through the latitude range of the forecast area. The line was
continuing to erode from the northern end of the line, in
Central Kentucky, early this morning. Given this trend
continuing, and not enough warm advection for an early
morning flare up, showers and any thunderstorms ahead of the
cold front today will take place mainly this afternoon into
this evening, over eastern portions of the forecast area.
Moisture and hence instability will be limited.

An upper level wave out ahead of another cold front may bring
showers into the middle Ohio Valley from the west before dawn
Wednesday.

Temperatures close to a short term consensus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

Unsettled weather continues in the short term period as yet
another cold frontal boundary drops south into the region. Could
be a few strong storms on Wednesday afternoon, particularly
across the far northeast. Models indicating strong 0-6 km
shear, on the order of 40-60 kts, and storms will have the
potential for damaging winds.

Frontal boundary will exit to the east of the CWA Wednesday
night, with drier weather taking hold for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

After a brief break in the weather on Thursday, another frontal
boundary will sag south into the region during the Friday into
Saturday time period. This front will meander across the CWA
over the weekend, with several waves of low pressure moving
through the region. Moisture will be on the increase during the
period with pw values progged to rise to around 1.6 inches. The
weekend will need to be monitored for the potential for water
issues during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Front crossing the area today with limited moisture will do
little to interrupt VFR conditions. Scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms will form east of the Ohio River this
afternoon, but coverage is expected to be too low for explicit
mention in TAFs at this time.

In addition to the high clouds, there will be altocu, and a deep
mixing layer Tuesday afternoon will make heights of the cu
bases almost indiscernible with the altocu, aoa 6-8 kft.

Guidance shows no fog forming in the wake of the cold front tonight,
given light flow and patchy cloud ahead of yet another cold
front approaching from the west toward dawn Wednesday.

Light south to southwest surface flow early this morning will
become light west to southwest today, and then light south to
southwest tonight. Flow aloft will remain light west to
southwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May have brief restrictions in passing
showers or thunderstorms this afternoon in WV. Valley fog may
briefly develop in the Tygart Valley again tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday,
Friday and Saturday, and maybe in fog near dawn Thursday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



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