Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 291056
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
656 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits to the northeast today. High pressure with
cooler and drier air for the weekend into next week. Moisture
returns toward weeks end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

A quasi stationary frontal boundary remains in the vicinity
while an upper level low pressure pass by and a sfc low
pressure develops along it over WV. This scenario will producing
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms mainly across
north central WV. These shower activity is moving very slowly
depositing significant amount of water. Soils across northeast
quadrant of WV remains nearly saturated and any additional
rainfall will lead to flash flooding. A flash flood watch
remains in effect for the northeast sections until 8 AM.

Much drier conditions expected tonight as a high pressure
builds from the west.

Used a blend of the short term models along with previous
forecast to generate temperature values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM Saturday...

Otherwise cool high pressure dominates the short term forecast
with lows in the 50s to around 60 and highs in the 70s and 80s.
This will also help dry things for the end of the weekend and
into the first part of the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM Saturday...

Moisture gradually returns through the long term with POPs on the
increase towards the end of the week. A cold front and upper
trough approach from the NW Thursday into Friday, providing the
highest probability of showers and storms for the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 655 AM Saturday...

An upper level low pressure system will cross the area today.
This system will enhance the formation of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Widespread VFR
conditions expected outside showers and storms.

Light north to northwest surface flow overnight will increase
today, with some gusts to 15 to 20 kts on late morning / early
afternoon mixing. These winds will die down quickly toward
evening. Flow aloft will be light to moderate northeast today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low clouds mixing higher during
the day on today, may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    L    L    M    L    L    L    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    L    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Expect valley fog most mornings, especially along the river
valleys.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ030>032-
     039-040-521>523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.