Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 310607
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trof will keep the weather unsettled into early
next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter
interlude during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...

Forecast on track.

1030 PM UPDATE...

Quick update to roll with some ace pops for an hr or so for that
area of moderate rain coming out of Lawrence KY and into Wayne and
Lincoln WV. A quick inch of rain is possible with this before it
fades as it gets closer to CRW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Upper level trough will continue to rotate through the region
through Sunday. This will keep the chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest of the afternoon
and evening hours tonight. Areas of low clouds and fog will
develop over much of the area tonight...especially where rain has
fallen. Fog and low stratus will be slow to lift...but most areas
should see scattered clouds by mid to late morning. Warm and
humid weather continues tomorrow with a chance for scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models suggest a cold front will push southeast Sunday night into
Monday. Front is quite weak and it is tough to determine whether the
front pushes south of the area or dissipates across the south.

NAM then shows an upper level wave and an associated surface low
will move across the area late Monday night and Tuesday.  None of
the other models, including the latest SREF, have these features.
Because of this, I leaned away from using the NAM for this period.

Current thinking is that front will push southeast of area with
storm chances ending from the northwest Sunday night and Monday.
High pressure should result in dry weather on Tuesday.

Latest temperature guidance was close to previous forecast.  So only
tweaks made to both high and low temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The period will start out with High Pressure and dry weather. The
area of High Pressure will push east with southerly winds starting
to increase low-level moisture Wednesday. The increasing moisture
should combine with disturbances in the northwest upper flow to
result in increasing chances for showers and storms.

Models have one disturbance pushing southeast Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Will go with showers and thunderstorms being most
numerous during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and
Thursday. There may be other weak disturbances that the models are
not picking up yet. So could also be some storms during the
overnight periods.

A cold front will approach from the northwest late Friday before
pushing into the area on Saturday. WPC indicates the front should
push across the area late Saturday. This feature should result in
higher chances of showers and storms for Friday and Saturday.
Currently have high chance pops for Saturday. However would not be
surprised to see likely pops in the forecast as the time
approaches.

WPC temperatures look good and were generally used.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Patchy middeck overnight is again keeping lower stratus and fog
variable but all sites except BKW are likely to have IFR
conditions at some point before dawn.

The patchy middeck is associated with a weak upper level short
wave trough, which will also bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to southwest Virginia, southern WV and the WV
mountians early Sunday morning into midday. However, there is the
slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm anywhere at anytimethrough
Sunday.

PAtchy fog may start to form again toward 06Z Monday.

Light southwest flow continues surface and aloft.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog and low cloud formation overnight
into Sunday morning depends upon higher clouds and precipitation.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 07/31/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in fog during the overnight into the
morning hours each day.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS/TRM
NEAR TERM...JS/TRM/30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM


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