Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 261901
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. LOW TO UPPER 20S COMMON THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW FREEZING LAST IN THE BUCKHANNON TO
CLARKSBURG AREA.

WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT LATER THIS EVENING
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE MINUS TEENS. SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS. NO HEADLINES HOWEVER AS CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE REACHED IN THE 12 HOUR NECESSARY TIME FRAME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AROUND A 24 TO 30 HOUR TIME FRAME.

WILL BE STAYING BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE LAST REMAINING SITES GO
BELOW FREEZING...THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM/TUESDAY AND BEYOND
INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...COLD AIR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILDS IN AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY LATE THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  USED HPC NUMBERS WITH SOME
TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER
THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY
BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED
SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT
THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN
HANDLING THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEELING THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THE AVIATION FORECAST
TODAY IS PESSIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BAND
OF SNOW IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS GET INTO AN UPSLOPE REGIME. EKN AND CKB WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS...AS BKW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME
AROUND. CONTINUE WITH THE IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS THE
LONGEST...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ITSELF WITHOUT SNOW WILL KEEP BKW
BELOW 1KFT.

HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WHEN SNOW ENDS AT TERMINALS...BUT TO
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: OBS MAY BOUNCE. TIMING ISSUES WILL EXIST.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26








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