Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 222346
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
646 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm through early next week with numerous rain
showers, as an upper low rotates through the area. Progressively
colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 PM Sunday...

Just some minor changes to the forecast through
tomorrow...mainly to nudge pops toward latest runs of HRRR. QPF
amounts still look manageable with regards to flood
potential...so no headlines planned attm. It still appears the
highest ridges of Randolph and Pocahontas will change to wet
snow tomorrow with some accumulation likely by late afternoon.

As of 250 PM Sunday...

Weak short wave is currently pushing northward across West
Virginia and spreading some light rain showers across the
Eastern Forecast Area. There will likely be a break in the
action before a more robust short wave arrives later tonight as
upper low approaches. Rainfall tonight will likely be moderate
to even heavy at times as the lapse rates increase with
approaching 500mb low over the warm moist airmass settled in
the low levels. Forecast soundings indicate some weak elevated
instability, too weak to mention thunder in the forecast, but an
embedded thunderstorm or two is certainly not out of the
question. Have decided to not go with a flood watch with about
an inch or slightly more QPF expected. There is some concern
with the low level southeasterly flow late tonight. The upslope
component could enhance some higher amounts along the east
facing slopes and this is where I have currently placed the
highest QPF values. However, in the Lowlands this could also
cause the opposite scenario with a shadow effect. Overall, any
flooding should be minor and localized.

Precip will lighten up tomorrow morning, but wrap around showers
will likely persist through the day. Flow turns to the NW as low
passes to our SE. Model guidance is still trying to bring in
colder temps aloft and rain may turn to snow at the higher
elevations late Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

By Monday night, the strong low moves to our east taking most of the
rain showers with it. However, wrap around moisture will continue to
produce rain showers across the north and the possibility of snow
showers along the northeast mountains under north to northwest flow
into Tuesday.

Guidance suggest it should be dry with mild temperatures Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

Another but weaker low pressure system crosses east north of the
area Wednesday bringing a pair of fronts with chance for mainly
rain showers. Temperatures at H850 cool down to minus 7C
suggesting all snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday.

From Thursday night on, deep northwest flow will persists through
the end of the week, allowing mid level short waves to ride along
and produce upslope snow over the northeast mountains through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 PM Sunday...

A busy forecast period with strong closed low pushing south and
east of the region. There will be several rounds rain rotating
northwest across the area as the low passes.

More widespread rain overspreads the area from south to north
tonight, with conditions lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR in
heavier rain showers. Initial southeast flow will allow KBKW
cigs to lower into IFR this evening. Winds will also pick up,
but should not be much of an impact other than in the mountains.

As the low tracks east of the area tomorrow morning, low cigs
will plague much of the area with widespread IFR and some LIFR
at KBKW and along the OH river as rain continues. The main area
of rain will slowly pivot northeast as the day progresses with
only slow improvement from southwest to northeast. A change to
wet snow is expected in the afternoon across the highest
elevations of the northeast mountains.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of southeast upslope
clouds tonight could vary at BKW. Conditions could fluctuate
continuously with rain bands from system overnight and tomorrow.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR in rain and fog possible Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



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