Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 232303
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
703 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather returns as southerly winds pump air from the Gulf of
Mexico.  Temperatures will climb well above normal this weekend. the
next shot at showers arrives Sunday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 705 PM Thursday...

Only minor changes this evening. Expecting cloud cover to
increase tonight, with overnight low temperatures much milder
than last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...

A deepening mid level cyclone in the midwest will continue to churn
and move slowly north northeast through the short term.  This will
keep the region in the warm sector and largely precip free.  With
southerly flow in the low levels of the atmosphere, H8 temps climb
into the double digits.  This will equate to the warmest weekend
since the last week of Feb as the mercury makes a run near 80F in
the coal fields, but mostly 70s outside the higher terrain.  The
occluded front is knocking on the door of the tri state region
around Huntington by 12z Sunday.  Continue to ramp up probability of
precip chances by then, however given the strength of this system
would expect a later onset as we get closer due to operational model
bias.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...

Highlights:
- Above normal temperatures and precipitation
- Dry spells won`t be that long
- No big storms

Active southern stream will yield a parade of weather systems moving
across the region.  With all of the low pressures passing well to
our northwest and the Gulf wide open, no signs of winter weather on
the horizon.

Monday and Tuesday yield the warmest weather of the week as
temperatures climb 15 to 20 degrees above normal.  I would not be
surprised to see a few places in the southern coal fields get to
80F. Nonetheless, most of the tri state will be basking well into
the 70s.  The higher elevations will be in the 60s, still above
normal for late March.  The weather gets iffy mid week with the
placement of a baroclinic zone somewhere in central WV / I-64
corridor.  This will bring temps back to reality due to clouds and
scattered showers.

A transitory mid level anticyclone crosses Thursday and Friday which
will a return of dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 705 PM Thursday...

VFR through the period with mid level moisture from a warm front
passing through tonight, lowering to low end MVFR between
3-4kft. Surface flow less than 10kts out of the south/southeast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Restrictions and low level wind shear are likely with the
advance of late Monday cold front.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26



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