Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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095
FXUS61 KRLX 260552
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
152 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances through Thursday. Southeast flow may eventually
increase shower coverage Sunday into Monday...especially over
mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure at the surface with upper ridge across eastern
US will give above normal temperatures and increasing relative
humidity. Several weak upper disturbances will affect the region
during the period...increasing chances of showers and storms
mainly across the far western zones. Thunderstorms will be
isolated at best given weak instability and cloud cover
inhibiting convection. Initial wave will weaken as it crosses area
but additional waves expected tonight and tomorrow...which will
trigger additional rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
With lack of dynamics no severe storms expected.

Tonight will be warmer as dew points and cloud cover increases
with upper-level disturbance. Continued above average
temperatures with rebounding heights for tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will extend from the OH Valley east across the
Appalachians into the mid Atlantic coast. Upper level ridge is also
evident in models suggesting mainly fair weather in the short term.
There is no major system affecting the area during this period.
However, can expect afternoon convection produced by a combination
of diurnal heating, differential heating and occasional vorticity
max through at least Saturday. The NAM models show sfc based CAPE
exceeding 2000 J/Kg during the afternoon hours on Friday and
Saturday with precipitable water around 1.7 inches.The flow becomes
southeast Saturday pushing a boundary, evident in GFS H700 Theta-e
packed gradient field,north under south southeast flow. This will be
a high CAPE, low deep layer shear environment. Coded thunder for
CAPE equal and greater than 2000 J/Kg. Some storms can produce heavy
downpours conducive to localized water problems.

Went mainly with the super blend guidance for temperatures through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summer like weather will continue during the period as an upper
level ridge remains over the area. Warm afternoons and cool nights
will be the rule. There could be some convection Saturday night
due to afternoon heating and juicy airmass.

The upper level ridge hold until Sunday before drifting off the
east coast. Continue with low chance for the remainder of the
period especially during the afternoons.

A developing tropical system approaches South Carolina by Tuesday
morning. It is a little early to have high confidence on the track
of this system. Will monitor the development and track of this
tropical system.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Brief MVFR mist at some locations through 12Z...bouncing back
quickly to VFR through the day. Showers possible after
12z...moving southwest to northeast through 22Z. No prevailing
categories for this activity...so amendments may be needed in
increasing coverage.

Mist development after 04Z Friday is possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in a shower is possible.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 05/26/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26



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