Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 161148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR IN MOST PLACES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY KTUL WHERE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP ANY FOG FROM
FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VERY
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS MORNING. EVENING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
TEASE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD SOME. A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN ARKANSAS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SMALL STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND LIKELY
FAIRLY WET...AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE BRING A HEALTHY
DOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...RATHER THAN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN IF THIS ENDS UP VERIFYING...WE STILL STAND TO
GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW DAY PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

PLATE




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