Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201123
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR to IFR conditions ongoing across NE OK and NW AR with stratus
and patchy dense fog being reported. As warm front currently
draped from across the region lifts northward flight conditions
will improve into VFR levels by late morning or early afternoon.
Breezy south winds will develop during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Extensive low cloud cover has spread northward across the area
overnight and has led to improved visibility in much of the area.
Some breaks in the low deck were noted over the past couple of
hours and a few stations in central OK have seen a rapid
deterioration in the past hour. Could see fog re-develop and
become dense at times. Will continue to monitor for possibility of
an advisory. Temperatures starting out the day well above normal,
and as drier air is advected in from the southwest, expect temps
to rise much above normal in most locations as sfc low eventually
lifts north of the area. Possible exception could be areas near
the KS border in northeast OK where clouds last to break.

Strong Pacific jet will bring more substantial shortwave energy
across the southern states this weekend, with track of associated
sfc low most likely somewhere near I-40 per 00z models. Expect a
period of widespread precip with this feature Saturday night into
Sunday morning, all liquid as airmass remains quite warm, with at
least isolated thunderstorms. Another wave will quickly follow
early next week, with temps again warming well above normal by
Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. This system will have no
real quality moisture to work with and a dry forecast will be
maintained. Gusty south winds and warm temps ahead of the low,
along with fairly low RH, should result in heightened fire danger
Tuesday afternoon.

Amplifying upper level pattern will bring cooler air into the
region by mid-week with temperatures trending more in line with
climatological norms. Pattern will also support dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  44  65  43 /  10   0  10  60
FSM   68  45  68  46 /  10   0  10  60
MLC   71  47  67  43 /   0   0  10  60
BVO   64  39  63  41 /  10   0   0  60
FYV   66  43  66  43 /  10   0  10  60
BYV   65  49  66  44 /  10   0  10  60
MKO   67  44  65  44 /  10   0  10  60
MIO   64  43  64  42 /  10   0  10  60
F10   69  45  65  43 /   0   0  10  60
HHW   71  47  69  46 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



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