Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241058
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period...with the
exception of KFYV where brief MVFR vsbys in fog can be expected
through 13z. Some shower activity may approach KFSM later this
afternoon...however coverage will likely remain too...therefore
will forego any TAF mention at this time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Temps well above normal will continue through Monday. Current
satellite derived precipitable water shows an axis of deeper
moisture poised to rotate northwestward toward the forecast area
today. Given the isolated showers which occurred Saturday, the
influx of deeper moisture will warrant low precip chances this
afternoon primarily for western AR.

The focus will then be on the slow moving cold front and the
associated axis of convection. The front will enter far NE OK late
Monday night and make slow progress southeastward Tuesday.
Precipitation will begin to lag the boundary as stronger forcing
lifts northeastward away from the region. Thus higher precip
chances will focus on the western periphery of the forecast area.
A more substantial airmass change will be realized on Wednesday as
sfc high pressure builds into the Plains, while additional
troughing remains focused well west of the region. This, again,
will keep higher precip chances from NE OK and points westward.
Overall precip amounts through Wed continue to look unimpressive
for much of the area with far E OK and western AR possibly
remaining dry. The pattern for late week continues to suggest a
stronger cold front arriving by next weekend and continued dry
conditions.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION....23



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