Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak front pushing through NE OK this morning with mvfr ceilings
affecting KTUL/KRVS for an hour or so after passage. Also, some
fog potential again tonight especially KBVO. Aside from that
expect VFR conditions to prevail, with very slim chance of
additional shower at Arkansas sites this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with KBVO most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the TAF`s, except at KFSM early this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary  north central OK into far
southeast KS leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest AR well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line north-
east OK southeast KS border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best  chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z ECMWF..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning  over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
AR. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous  dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
H500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek.  GFS brings energy from east TX &
LA to undercut the ridge..while ECMWF keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   90  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   92  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   84  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  20  30  20  20
MKO   89  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   85  65  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
F10   90  67  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   94  70  94  70 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14


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