Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 312044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINED COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S
AND 70S TODAY OVER THE CWA. THE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
TRYING TO SCATTER OUT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IF THE CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...THEN PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 50S IF THE
CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROF...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPS RETURN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE REGION. 24-HRS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THIS NEXT SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY...NOW LATEST
RUNS INDICATE THAT IT COULD BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY
THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  86  65  87 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   64  83  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   62  83  64  86 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   59  86  63  87 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   58  82  60  83 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   60  82  62  83 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   61  85  64  86 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   59  86  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
F10   62  84  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   65  79  64  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20




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