Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 301258
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Mar 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 30-Apr 01 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 30-Apr 01 2015

            Mar 30     Mar 31     Apr 01
00-03UT        2          4          4
03-06UT        2          4          4
06-09UT        1          5 (G1)     3
09-12UT        1          4          2
12-15UT        1          4          2
15-18UT        2          3          2
18-21UT        3          3          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 30 and 31 Mar
due to effects from a southern polar coronal hole high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2015

              Mar 30  Mar 31  Apr 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2015

              Mar 30        Mar 31        Apr 01
R1-R2           15%           15%           25%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts is
forecast for 01 Apr due to the return of old Regions 2302 and 2297.


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