Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
000
FXXX10 KWNP 231231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2014

            Oct 23     Oct 24     Oct 25
00-03UT        2          4          3
03-06UT        2          3          3
06-09UT        2          3          2
09-12UT        2          3          2
12-15UT        3          3          2
15-18UT        2          3          2
18-21UT        2          3          2
21-00UT        4          3          2

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a G1 (Minor) or greater
geomagnetic storm on days 1 and 2 from a positive polarity coronal hole
high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2014

              Oct 23  Oct 24  Oct 25
S1 or greater   35%     40%     45%

Rationale: There is an increasing chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms as Region 2192 moves into an increasingly geoeffective
position.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 22 2014 1428 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2014

              Oct 23        Oct 24        Oct 25
R1-R2           95%           95%           95%
R3 or greater   55%           55%           55%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, and
another R3 (Strong) or greater event is likely from Region 2192 in the
next three days.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.