Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 011355
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Feb 01 1355 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 01-Feb 03 2015 is 5 (NOAA
Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 01-Feb 03 2015

            Feb 01     Feb 02     Feb 03
00-03UT        4          4          4
03-06UT        3          4          3
06-09UT        3          3          2
09-12UT        2          3          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        5 (G1)     2          2
21-00UT        4          2          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on day one
(01 Feb) due to coronal hole high speed stream activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 01-Feb 03 2015

              Feb 01  Feb 02  Feb 03
S1 or greater   20%     20%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation for Feb 01-03 as Region 2268 rotates off the visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 01-Feb 03 2015

              Feb 01        Feb 02        Feb 03
R1-R2           60%           60%           50%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely for days
one and two (01-02 Feb) decreasing to a chance by day three (03 Feb)
with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater as Region 2268
approaches the west limb.



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