Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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AXUS74 KCRP 082027
DGTCRP
TXZ229>234-239>247-102030-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
227 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING VICTORIA COUNTY...

...SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST OR DEVELOP OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS BY THE END OF APRIL...


.SYNOPSIS...
Since October 2017, below normal rainfall has occurred over
northeastern portions of South Texas. October 2017 was
especially dry, with many areas receiving no more than 25 percent
of their normal rainfall for the month. With October typically
being one of the wetter months of the year in South
Texas/Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the 2018 Water Year (which
runs from October 1 2017 through September 2018) started off dry.
For example, Victoria normally receives 4.63 inches of rainfall in
October but only 1.25 inches fell that month. While December 2017
saw near normal to slightly above normal rainfall over the
aforementioned areas, November 2017 and January 2018 were dry.

Below normal rainfall has also been observed in other portions of
South Texas, including the Coastal Bend and Brush Country.
However, many of these areas saw well above normal rainfall in
December to compensate their below normal rainfall in the other
months. Thus, although dry conditions prevailed over most of the
areas over the last few months, deficits were not as extreme and
drought conditions have not spread as far south and west.

The dry weather pattern was largely due to an on-going La Nina
pattern in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This pattern normally
results in below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures
over South Texas. While the temperatures have not been
climatologically typical of a La Nina pattern (December and
January saw below normal temperatures over South Texas), the
rainfall has been fairly typical for La Nina.

According to the Drought Monitor Product, valid on February 6 2018,
drought conditions exist over the following areas:

Severe Drought: much of Southern Victoria County and small
portions of Eastern Goliad, Western Calhoun, and Northern
Refugio Counties. The city of Victoria is in the severe drought
category.

Moderate Drought: Nearly the remainder of Victoria and Refugio
Counties, Eastern Goliad County, most of the rest of Calhoun
County (except NE - Abnormally Dry), Northern Aransas County, and
small portions of Northern San Patricio, Northern La Salle, and
Southeastern Bee Counties.

Abnormally Dry: The remainder of Bee County, Live Oak County,
the remainder of Aransas and San Patricio Counties, northwestern
portions of La Salle County, northern portions of McMullen
County, and portions of Southeastern McMullen, Northeastern Duval,
Northern Jim Wells, and Northwestern Nueces Counties.

For the current drought monitor product showing drought conditions
over the remainder of Texas, go to the Corpus Christi Drought Page
on the web:

http://www.weather.gov/crp/drought


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
According to the Texas Forest Service Burn Ban Map of February 8
2018, Duval County has a burn ban. No other burn bans are in
effect, but more could be coming if dry conditions continue.

Residents planning on burning should still contact county
officials to ensure that burning is allowed, and also to see if
any restrictions on how and when to burn are in effect. If burning
is allowed, be sure it is not done during windy days with low
humidity, as this could result in a fire which could easily get
out of control.

No water restrictions are in effect in the city of Victoria at this
time. Water saving tips for individual users can be found at:
http://www.victoriatx.org/home/showdocument?id=1294 .

Corpus Christi and Laredo are not in drought status, with no water
restrictions in Laredo due to adequate water levels in Lake Amistad.

The city of Corpus Christi continues with city-wide voluntary water
conservation efforts. Residents are asked to water only once a
week on any day they prefer, as long as it is between the hours
of 6 PM and 10 AM. Go to http://www.cctexas.com/government/water
for more information. For residents in Portland and Ingleside,
visit:

http://portlandtx.com
http://inglesidetx.gov

Only water your landscapes to maintain adequate soil moisture.
Also, only water if rainfall has not been received for a week or
two. Use a sprinkler which makes larger water droplets, and
avoid watering on windy days. Finally, turn soaker hoses so that
the holes are on the bottom, facing the grass.

For residents with sprinklers, turn off your sprinkler system when
rainfall has been sufficient to avoid watering when it is not
needed. Residents with sprinkler systems should also monitor their
watering to ensure their system is watering the lawn and not the
sidewalk or street.


AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
The soil moisture anomaly map for early February shows slightly dry
conditions over South Texas (-20 to -60 mm), with the greatest
deficits over the extreme southeast. Soil moisture percentiles
are in the 30 to 70 percent range over essentially all of the HSA.

Crop moisture indices for the week ending February 3 indicate near
normal (slightly dry/favorably moist) conditions over the HSA.

As of this writing, there are no drought impacts indicated by the
Drought Impact Reporter.

Also, AgriLife TODAY has no recent Crop and Weather Reports for South
Texas.


FIRE DANGER HAZARDS...
According to the Fire Danger Map from the Texas Inter-Agency
Coordination Center (TICC) on February 7, there was a low to
moderate fire danger over the HSA. The moderate fire danger was
over the Northwestern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
Although fuels are cured, below average temperatures and
insignificant winds have helped to keep the fire danger from
reaching critical levels in recent months.

County-averaged Keetch-Byram Drought Indices (KBDI) are low to
moderate, with the highest values in Victoria and Jim Wells
Counties (400 to 500). The remainder of South Texas
(including those in moderate drought or relatively dry status) are
below 400, but above 200. KDBI values will increase if rainfall
deficits continue to increase.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
As stated earlier, while the on-going La Nina in the equatorial
Pacific Ocean has resulted in below normal rainfall over the area,
temperatures have been below average, especially in December and
January when wintry precipitation visited South Texas for a short
time. Much of the northeastern portions of the HSA away from the
coast have seen between 25 and 75 percent of their normal rainfall
over the last 90 days, generally where severe and moderate drought
conditions exist. Water year data (starting October 1 2018) show
rainfall percent of normal values of no more than 50 percent over
most of Victoria County and much of Goliad and Refugio Counties.
Most other locations in South Texas have had below normal rainfall
since the beginning of the 2018 water year.

At this time, La Nina conditions continue over the equatorial
Pacific. A weak to moderate La Nina is currently present (Nino
3.4 index value was -0.8C). Nearly all models in the IRI/CPC plume
predict La Nina will persist through the Northern Hemisphere
winter 2017-18. Based on the latest observations and forecast
guidance, forecasters believe the La Nina is currently peaking and
will eventually weaken into the spring.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts the following longer
range conditions for South Texas:

The 8 to 14 day precipitation and temperature outlooks for the
period February 16 through February 22 call for above normal
temperatures and rainfall over the entire HSA.

Typical for La Nina conditions, the monthly temperature and
rainfall outlook for February calls for a greater likelihood for
above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. However, it
should be noted that this has not been a typical La Nina event
for South Texas, as temperatures have been below normal over the
last couple of months.

Similarly CPC 3 month temperature and rainfall outlook for February
through April forecast a greater likelihood for above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation over the entire HSA.

Because of the temperature and rainfall outlooks, the Seasonal
Drought Outlook valid through the end of April calls for the
drought to persist over the current areas, then develop over the
remainder of South Texas by the end of April.

The lagged soil moisture outlook valid through the end of May 2018
calls for below to slightly below normal soil conditions over the
HSA, with the greatest deficits over the northern portions of
South Texas.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
According to the USGS streamflow map on February 8, most South
Texas rivers have near normal flows, but some of the smaller
creeks and rivers (Coleto Creek, San Fernando Creek, and Atascosa
River) have below normal flows.

Cooler weather has helped to keep reservoir levels from falling
too rapidly due to less evaporation, but lack of significant
rainfall has resulted in little recharge over the past several
weeks. Overall, reservoirs have not falling significantly since
drought conditions were previously present over South Texas, but
have fallen nonetheless.

The following table shows the current reservoir levels as of
February 8 2018, and previous levels as of March 2 2017.

Reservoir      Normal  Current  Percent  Previous Change
                Pool     Pool  Capacity    Pool    (ft)
Choke Canyon   220.5    195.6    29.7     200.6    -5.0
Lake C. C.      94.0     93.1    93.2      93.4    -0.3
Lake Texana     44.0     40.9    82.9      44.0    -3.1
Coleto Creek    98.0     96.7    89.9      98.1    -1.4
Canyon Dam     909.0    905.2    91.9     909.2    -4.0
Lake Amistad  1117.0   1093.9    75.4    1095.7    -1.8

The combined system capacity for the Corpus Christi Reservoir
System as of February 8 was at 47.4 percent, which is 6.7
percentage points lower than on March 2.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
The next Drought Information Statement will be issued sometime
in March, unless conditions warrant an earlier update.


RELATED WEB SITES...

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT PAGE:
http://www.weather.gov/crp/drought

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS):
http://water.weather.gov/precip

U.S. Drought Monitor (includes drought and soil moisture
outlooks, drought archives and temperature/rainfall outlooks):
http://drought.unl.edu/monitor.html

U.S. Drought Monitor (includes only Texas):
http://drought.unl.edu/dm_state.htm?tx,s

U.S. Drought Portal:
http://www.drought.gov

Texas Drought Monitoring Site:
http://www.txwin.net/monitoring/meteorological/drought/indices.htm

NOAA Drought Page:
http://www.drought.noaa.gov

Drought Impact Reporter:
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/

National Drought Mitigation Center:
http://drought.unl.edu

Texas Water Development Board Drought Website:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/drought/

Vegetation Drought Response Index:
http://drought.unl.edu.vegdri/vegdri_main.htm?ev

Climate Prediction Center (CPC):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Weather Prediction Center (WPC):
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI):
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/spi/spi.html

Agnews: Texas A & M Agricultural Program
(Crop and Weather Report): http://today.agrilife.org

Texas Interagency Coordination Center (TICC):
http://www.tamu.edu/ticc/

Texas Burn Bans:
http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/decban.png

Texas KBDI:
http://webgis.tamu.edu/tfs/kbdi_daily/kbdicounty.png

Texas Observed Fire Danger:
http://twc.tamu.edu/tfs/raws/rawsd.png

Texas Forecast Fire Danger:
http://twc.tamu.edu/tfs/raws/rawsfcst.png

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (water restrictions):
http://www.tceq.texas.gov/drinkinater/trot/location.html

Corpus Christi Water Department:
http://www.cctexas.com/government/water

Corpus Christi Water Conservation:
http://www.cctexas.com/assets/departments/water/files/waterconservationplan.pdf

Victoria Water Conservation:
http://www.victoriatx.org/pio/pdfs/watersavingmethods.pdf

Laredo Water Restrictions and Conservation:
http://www.ci.laredo.tx.us/utilities05/ordinance/2009_ordinance.pdf

City of victoria Web Site:
http://www.victoriatx.org

City of Laredo Web Site:
http://www.ci.laredo.tx.us

City of Portland Web Site:
http://www.portlandtx.com

Texas Crop and Weather Reports:
http://www.today.agrilife.org

Additional River Information:
NWS: http://www.weather.gov/ahps/
USGS: http://water.usgs.gov/
IBWC: http://ibwc.state.gov/


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the
National Weather Service and National Climatic Data Center, the
USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the National
Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has been
gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, state cooperative
extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
If you have any questions or comments about this drought
information statement, please contact:
National Weather Service
426 Pinson Drive
Corpus Christi TX 78406
Phone: 361-289-0959
sr-crp.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

GW/CB



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